I'll research MDLZ before writing the preview. Let me gather recent earnings materials, news, and price data in parallel.Let me read the most recent Q1 2026 earnings call and release, plus check for cocoa-related news.Let me get the year-ago Q2 2025 numbers for comparison and recent consumer staples/cocoa sentiment.I now have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.
Report date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 (after U.S. close) | Event: Q2 2026 Earnings Call Recent price (7/27/26): ~$60.69 | Consensus: Organic net revenue growth ~+1%, Adjusted EPS ~$0.68
2026 is framed as Mondelēz's bounce-back year after cocoa crushed 2025 profitability. Recall that management guided 2025 to a ~10% Adjusted EPS decline driven by "unprecedented cocoa cost inflation," and Q2 2025 saw Adjusted EPS fall 14.5% in constant currency to $0.73 even as organic revenue grew a robust +5.6% on double-digit chocolate pricing.
For 2026, the company reaffirmed at Q1 its full-year framework of organic net revenue growth of flat-to-+2% and Adjusted EPS growth of flat-to-+5% constant currency, plus ~$3B free cash flow, with FX now a ~2pt tailwind to revenue and ~$0.06 to EPS. The catch: the first half is still running down (Q1 Adjusted EPS was $0.67, down 14.9% cc), so hitting the full-year target requires a material second-half EPS inflection. That H2 "hockey stick" — enabled by cocoa costs rolling off and easy comps — is the single biggest debate going into this print. Q2 is more of a transition quarter than the proof point.
The stock has lagged: MDLZ is down roughly 13% over the past year, bottomed near $51–52 in early January, and has since clawed back to ~$61. It remains one of the more preferred large-cap staples names on perceived better growth prospects, even as sentiment on food staples broadly is downbeat. Note the recent pattern in earnings reactions — the stock fell ~6.6% the day after Q2 2025 results but rallied ~4% after a well-received Q1 2026.
| Metric | Q2 2026 Consensus | Q2 2025 Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Organic net revenue growth | ~+1% | +5.6% |
| — Latin America | >+4% | +5.4% |
| — Asia (AMEA) | >+4% | +8.6% |
| — Europe | ~–1.6% | +12.5% |
| — North America | ~+0.4% | –3.4% |
| Adjusted EPS | ~$0.68 | $0.73 |
The optics of decelerating organic growth (from +5.6% to ~+1%) are mechanical, not fundamental: last year's number was juiced by ~+7.1% pricing (Europe pricing alone was +13.8%) to offset cocoa. As that pricing wraps, headline growth normalizes and the burden shifts to volume/mix. Watch whether volume can hold up as pricing rolls off.
1. Volume/mix inflection — especially North America. Volume has been the soft spot (–1.5% in Q2 2025, –0.5% in Q1 2026). Management said Q1 vol/mix was actually slightly positive excluding downsizing, and explicitly guided to a volume and revenue inflection in North America in H2, driven by share gains (Ritz, Sour Patch Kids, Ritz Bits/Drizzled, Tate's, Clif) rather than category recovery — they do not expect the U.S. category to improve. A positive vol/mix inflection this quarter would be an important early confirmation; continued volume erosion would raise doubts about the H2 story.
2. Cocoa — the crux of the margin recovery. At Q1, management pegged cocoa around $2,500/tonne (down sharply from record highs), described the industry as over-covered (~10 months, the highest in a while), and expected another year of supply surplus, potentially with prices drifting even lower. Lower cocoa is the mechanism behind the H2 gross-margin recovery and the 2027 earnings tailwind. Any commentary on new-crop supply, coverage/hedging position for 2027, and whether deflation is showing up in the P&L yet is critical.
3. Gross margin and the reinvestment choice. Q1 Adjusted gross margin fell 270bps to 30.7% and Adjusted operating income margin fell 310bps to 11.7% on input inflation and unfavorable mix. Importantly, management has repeatedly signaled that if EPS upside materializes, they'd reinvest it in A&C/brands to sustain momentum into 2027 rather than let it drop through — which is why Q1 upside was met with only a reaffirm, not a raise. Expect the same posture; the question is whether H1 strength finally forces a guidance bump.
4. Emerging vs. developed markets. EM (~40% of sales) grew +6.3% in Q1 and is the reliable engine (India double-digit, China mid-single-digit, Brazil high-single-digit). The newer positive is developed-market recovery: European chocolate returning to volume share growth after Easter, and a claimed positive inflection in U.S. biscuits in March. Durability of the DM turn is the swing factor.
5. The consumer. Management characterized the U.S. consumer as weak and K-shaped (basket flat in dollars for ~3 years, trade-down to club/value/online), while Europe is "fragile but resilient." They also flagged Middle East–related cost headwinds (oil, packaging, transportation) that they're absorbing — watch for updated sizing and whether those pressures have eased or intensified.
6. Guidance decision. Given a strong H1, the market will focus on whether MDLZ raises, narrows, or simply reaffirms. Based on the Q1 playbook, a reaffirm-and-reinvest is the base case; an explicit raise would be a clear positive surprise.
Q2 is a transition quarter: headline organic growth decelerates as heavy 2025 pricing laps, and Adjusted EPS is expected to still be down year-over-year (~$0.68 vs. $0.73). The real debate isn't the quarter itself — it's whether the ingredients for the second-half EPS inflection are visibly falling into place. The bull case rests on (a) volume/mix turning positive (especially North America), (b) cocoa deflation flowing into gross margin, and (c) resilient emerging-market momentum, setting up a "strong 2027." The bear case is that the flat-to-+5% full-year EPS target implies a very steep H2 recovery off a ~15%-down first half — a big ask if volumes stay soft or Middle East / input costs bite.
What would move the stock: an outright guidance raise, a clean volume inflection, and constructive cocoa/2027 commentary would be taken well; continued volume declines, margin disappointment, or heavier-than-expected reinvestment diluting the EPS bridge would pressure a stock that is well off its highs but has recovered meaningfully from its January lows.
Note: consensus expectations cited here reflect a pre-earnings sell-side preview; figures are Street estimates, not company guidance. All company results and outlook figures are from MDLZ's Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 earnings releases and the Q1 2026 earnings call.