| MDLZ |
Report |
Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.70 vs. cons $0.67 |
MEDIUM |
| MDLZ |
Report |
Q2 2026 Organic Net Revenue Growth |
BEAT |
pred ~1.4% vs. cons ~1.0% |
MEDIUM |
| MDLZ |
Report |
Q2 2026 Adjusted Gross Profit Margin (YoY change) |
MISS |
pred ~-180bps vs. cons ~-110bps |
LOW |
| MDLZ |
Guide |
FY2026 Organic Net Revenue Growth guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~flat-to+2% vs. cons flat-to+2% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MDLZ |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS growth (constant currency) guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~flat-to-2% (trimmed toward low end) vs. cons flat-to+5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MDLZ |
Guide |
FY2026 Free Cash Flow guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$3.0B vs. cons ~$3.0B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MDLZ |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MDLZ |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.0% (FADE) |
A likely EPS/organic-revenue beat (echoing Q1's pattern of beating a lowballed consensus) should drive an initial positive pop, but cocoa futures have roughly doubled from the ~$2,500/tonne assumption management cited in April to over $5,300/tonne by late July, a headwind not yet fully reflected in the flat-to-+5% cc EPS guide. As sell-side models digest the magnitude of H2 cocoa cost flow-through and any cautious framing from new CFO Amit Banati, FY2026/2027 EPS estimates are likely to be trimmed even after a Q2 beat, pulling the stock back from its day-1 pop over the following days (implicit guide-cut math despite a reaffirmed headline range). |
LOW |