{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.70 vs. cons $0.67",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Organic Net Revenue Growth",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~1.4% vs. cons ~1.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Adjusted Gross Profit Margin (YoY change)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~-180bps vs. cons ~-110bps",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Organic Net Revenue Growth guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~flat-to+2% vs. cons flat-to+2% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS growth (constant currency) guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~flat-to-2% (trimmed toward low end) vs. cons flat-to+5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Free Cash Flow guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.0B vs. cons ~$3.0B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A likely EPS/organic-revenue beat (echoing Q1's pattern of beating a lowballed consensus) should drive an initial positive pop, but cocoa futures have roughly doubled from the ~$2,500/tonne assumption management cited in April to over $5,300/tonne by late July, a headwind not yet fully reflected in the flat-to-+5% cc EPS guide. As sell-side models digest the magnitude of H2 cocoa cost flow-through and any cautious framing from new CFO Amit Banati, FY2026/2027 EPS estimates are likely to be trimmed even after a Q2 beat, pulling the stock back from its day-1 pop over the following days (implicit guide-cut math despite a reaffirmed headline range).",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}