Report Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 (after market close)
| Stock price (7/27/26) | ~$60.69 (52-week range: high ~$71, roughly 14% below highs) |
| Q2 consensus EPS | ~$0.67–$0.68 (vs. $0.73 in Q2 2025) |
| Q2 consensus revenue | ~$9.2B (+2.6% reported YoY) |
| Q2 consensus organic revenue growth | ~+1% |
| FY2026 guidance (reaffirmed at Q1) | Organic revenue growth flat-to-+2%; Adjusted EPS growth flat-to-+5% (constant currency); ~$3B Free Cash Flow |
| Analyst sentiment | Moderate Buy; mean price target ~$67 |
Wall Street is bracing for another quarter of headline EPS decline layered on top of steady top-line growth — the persistent story of this reporting cycle: cocoa-driven cost inflation eating into margins even as pricing and emerging-market volumes keep the top line moving. Wall Street expects the company to report a profit of $0.67 per share, down 8.2% from $0.73 per share in the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $9.22 billion, indicating growth of 2.6% from the prior-year quarter's reported figure, while the consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged over the past 30 days at 67 cents per share, implying an 8.2% decline from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
Q1 2026 (reported April 28) came in ahead of plan. Net revenues rose 8.2% reported / 3.0% organic to $10.08B, with pricing (+3.5pp) more than offsetting a slight volume/mix decline (-0.5pp). Emerging Markets grew a strong 6.3% organic (Latin America +5.1%, AMEA +11.3%), while Developed Markets were roughly flat (+0.8%) as Europe (-0.6%) lagged North America (+0.5%). Adjusted EPS was $0.67, down 14.9% on a constant-currency basis, driven by elevated cocoa/input costs, unfavorable mix, and stepped-up brand investment, partially offset by productivity and pricing. Mondelez International beat Q1 2026 adjusted EPS estimates, reporting $0.67 vs. the consensus of $0.61, and reaffirmed its 2026 organic revenue growth outlook despite elevated cocoa costs and ongoing weakness in U.S. consumer confidence.
Management's message on that call was notably confident about momentum but cautious about the P&L: leadership described emerging markets as "very strong," highlighted a sequential inflection in North American biscuits (Ritz, Sour Patch Kids, Perfect Bar, Tate's), and pointed to a "very robust" European Easter with volume-share gains in chocolate. Yet despite beating Q1 estimates, CFO Luca Zaramella opted to reaffirm rather than raise full-year guidance, citing incremental costs tied to the Middle East conflict (freight rerouting, oil/packaging exposure in regulated markets) and a decision to reinvest any EPS upside back into advertising and consumer promotion rather than drop it to the bottom line.
1. Cocoa costs — the swing factor. Cocoa has been anything but stable since the Q1 call. Management characterized ~$2,500/tonne as a "fair representation" of fundamentals in April, but prices have since moved well above that. Futures reached their highest level in roughly 24 weeks on 6 July 2026, closing at $5,723 per tonne after a near 14% single-day rise, as heavy rains across Ivory Coast and Ghana disrupted cocoa farms and early crop surveys pointed to a weaker 2026/27 harvest. Cocoa was trading around $5,330/T in late July, still 36% lower than a year ago but well above the year's lows. This volatility raises the question of how much further gross margin pressure MDLZ will flag for H2 2026, and whether the industry's now "longer" hedge positioning (~10 months of coverage per Zaramella) is enough insulation. Watch for updated cocoa cost/hedging commentary and any change to the input-cost assumptions embedded in guidance.
2. Pricing vs. volume/elasticity. Investors want to see whether the sequential volume improvement flagged for Europe and North America materialized, or whether further price increases are again crimping volumes. Profitability is likely to have remained under pressure in the quarter, as elevated cocoa costs and persistent commodity inflation continued to weigh on gross margins despite pricing actions.
3. Regional growth divergence. Consensus embeds a bifurcated quarter: top-line growth expected when Mondelez reports second-quarter 2026 earnings, with revenue pegged at $9.22 billion, up 2.6% from the prior-year quarter. Per the pre-earnings digest, the Street expects Latin America and Asia to grow over 4%, Europe to decline 1.6%, and the U.S. to rise a modest 0.4% — a mirror of the Q1 pattern where emerging markets carried the growth algorithm while developed markets stabilize only gradually.
4. North America "green shoots." Management spent much of the Q1 call building the case for a North American inflection — share gains in Ritz/crackers, strength in Sour Patch Kids, Clif/Perfect Bar/Builders Bar, and Tate's, plus supply-chain modernization (bringing co-manufactured lines in-house, DSD automation). The market will look for confirmation that U.S. net revenue and volume actually turned positive sequentially, given depressed U.S. consumer confidence.
5. CFO transition. The company appointed Amit Banati as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective July 1, 2026, while current CFO Luca Zaramella will focus on his role as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. This will be Banati's first earnings call in the CFO seat — worth watching for any shift in tone on cost discipline, capital allocation, or the pace of guidance updates.
6. Free cash flow and capital returns. Q1 free cash flow was unusually light ($155M vs. $815M in Q1 2025) reflecting seasonal working-capital swings; the ~$3B full-year FCF target implies a much stronger back half. Buyback activity has also been muted (no repurchases in Q1 2026 vs. $1.5B in Q1 2025) — investors will want clarity on capital-return cadence for the rest of the year.
7. Full-year guidance: reaffirm, raise, or trim? Given the Q1 beat but rising cocoa costs since, the guidance decision is the single biggest event risk. The current 2026 outlook calls for organic net revenue growth of flat-to-2% and constant-currency Adjusted EPS growth of flat-to-5%, plus roughly $3B of free cash flow — unchanged since Q1.
Cocoa has been the defining commodity story for chocolate makers over the past two years, and its trajectory remains unusually volatile heading into this print:
Upside catalysts: - Confirmation of the North American volume/revenue inflection Zaramella promised (Ritz, Sour Patch Kids, ventures brands) - Evidence that European chocolate share gains and reduced elasticity are sustained beyond the Easter-driven Q1 boost - Any signal that cocoa cost guidance for H2/2027 is trending more favorable despite the recent futures spike - A guidance raise, or at minimum reaffirmation with confident tone on 2027 EPS re-acceleration
Downside risks: - A guidance cut or heavier framing of Middle East/tariff-related cost headwinds - Signs that pricing is now driving material volume/share losses in the U.S. or Europe - Commentary suggesting cocoa cost relief is being pushed out further amid West African weather disruptions and tightening 2026/27 crop estimates - Any read-through from new CFO Amit Banati signaling a more conservative near-term stance
Mondelez heads into Q2 earnings as a "show-me" story: Q1 proved the emerging-markets engine is intact and offered early signs of a developed-market turnaround, but consensus still bakes in an EPS decline (~$0.67–0.68 vs. $0.73 a year ago) as cocoa and input-cost inflation continue to outrun pricing and productivity gains. With cocoa futures having whipsawed from multi-year lows back above $5,300/tonne on West African weather risk, the market's central question tomorrow isn't really about Q2's results — which are largely pre-telegraphed — but about management's tone on H2 cost trajectory, the durability of the North American and European volume inflection, and whether full-year guidance survives unchanged. A steady reaffirmation with confident 2027 framing would likely be read as a "clean" quarter; any hedging on costs or consumer demand could reignite the valuation debate that has kept the stock range-bound roughly 14% below its 52-week high.