META Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
META Report Revenue (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$61.5B vs. cons $60.2B HIGH
META Report EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$7.75 vs. cons $7.20 MEDIUM
META Report Advertising revenue (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$60.4B vs. cons $59.0B HIGH
META Guide FY26 capex guide LOWER guide ~$135-150B vs. cons $125-145B (FY2026) — a raise, bearish MEDIUM
META Guide Q3'26 revenue guide (midpoint) BETTER guide ~$63-66B vs. cons $63.5B (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
META Guide FY26 total expense guide UNCHANGED guide ~$162-169B vs. cons ~$166B (FY2026) MEDIUM
META Guide 2027 capex framing / out-year signpost LOWER pred another step-up flagged ~$150B+ vs. cons no formal number ~$140B (FY2027) LOW
META Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.5% LOW
META Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) Q2 revenue/EPS beat and a ~13% de-rate into the print (META $681→$593) set a low bar for a relief pop on day 1. But a memory-price-driven FY26 capex raise plus a soft 2027 framing forces out-period EPS estimates lower (higher depreciation, interest expense, financing dilution, RL losses), so the initial bounce fades as revisions reset the ROI/margin narrative against an Alphabet-capex-panned tape. LOW