META Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
META Report Total Revenue (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$60.9B vs. cons $60.26B MEDIUM
META Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$7.20 vs. cons $7.22 LOW
META Report Q2 2026 Actual Capex BEAT pred ~$34B vs. cons ~$31B MEDIUM
META Guide FY2026 Capex Guidance BETTER guide ~$140-160B vs. cons ~$135B (FY2026) MEDIUM
META Guide FY2026 Total Expenses Guidance BETTER guide ~$168-178B vs. cons ~$166B (FY2026) MEDIUM
META Guide Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$63-66B vs. cons ~$64.5B (Q3 2026) LOW
META Guide Reality Labs FY2026 Operating Loss Commentary UNCHANGED guide ~$19B vs. cons ~$19B (FY2026) MEDIUM
META Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -5.2% MEDIUM
META Return 5-day cumulative residual -8.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Even with a top/bottom-line beat, an expected further FY26 capex raise (to fund the Q1 underspend catch-up plus AI buildout) forces sell-side models to push out 2027 depreciation/opex ramps, compressing forward margin and EPS estimates similarly to the Alphabet post-earnings drift; credit-market stress (widening AI bond spreads, Moody's warnings) and no offsetting cloud-revenue narrative for Meta mean initial capex-driven selling is likely to continue into the following days rather than reverse, consistent with the pattern seen after the Q1 print. MEDIUM