| MGM |
Report |
Las Vegas Strip Adjusted EBITDAR |
BEAT |
pred ~$820M vs. cons ~$795M |
MEDIUM |
| MGM |
Report |
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$625M vs. cons ~$615M |
LOW |
| MGM |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.68 vs. cons ~$0.62 |
LOW |
| MGM |
Guide |
Special-committee stance on People Inc. $48.30/sh bid |
UNKNOWN |
board view $48.30 vs. sell-side fair value ~$55 (2026 take-private process) |
LOW |
| MGM |
Guide |
Buyback cadence during deal process |
UNKNOWN |
guide continued ~$90M/qtr vs. ~$1.5B remaining authorization (2026) |
LOW |
| MGM |
Guide |
Las Vegas Strip 2026 EBITDA growth |
BETTER |
guide flat-to-up ~+1% vs. cons ~-2% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MGM |
Guide |
BetMGM / MGM Digital profitability (World Cup) |
BETTER |
guide ~$150M+ share income vs. cons ~$100M (FY2026) |
LOW |
| MGM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
LOW |
| MGM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+2.5% (STABILIZE) |
MGM is deal-anchored: stock trades ~4% below the $48.30 People Inc. offer after fading from the $50.69 bid spike, so fundamentals are ammunition rather than the driver. A clean Vegas-led beat plus continued buybacks supports the board 'inadequate at $48.30' narrative, lifting the stock modestly on day 1. But with management constrained on a 'Business Update' call and no fresh deal terms, out-period math and the deal spread cap both directions — the normal post-beat estimate fade is offset by the takeover floor, so the residual settles rather than following through or fully reversing. |
LOW |