{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Las Vegas Strip Adjusted EBITDAR",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$820M vs. cons ~$795M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$625M vs. cons ~$615M",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.68 vs. cons ~$0.62",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Special-committee stance on People Inc. $48.30/sh bid",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "board view $48.30 vs. sell-side fair value ~$55 (2026 take-private process)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Buyback cadence during deal process",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide continued ~$90M/qtr vs. ~$1.5B remaining authorization (2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Las Vegas Strip 2026 EBITDA growth",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide flat-to-up ~+1% vs. cons ~-2% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "BetMGM / MGM Digital profitability (World Cup)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$150M+ share income vs. cons ~$100M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": 2.5,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "MGM is deal-anchored: stock trades ~4% below the $48.30 People Inc. offer after fading from the $50.69 bid spike, so fundamentals are ammunition rather than the driver. A clean Vegas-led beat plus continued buybacks supports the board 'inadequate at $48.30' narrative, lifting the stock modestly on day 1. But with management constrained on a 'Business Update' call and no fresh deal terms, out-period math and the deal spread cap both directions \u2014 the normal post-beat estimate fade is offset by the takeover floor, so the residual settles rather than following through or fully reversing.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}