| MGM |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~$0.56 vs. cons $0.60 |
MEDIUM |
| MGM |
Report |
Las Vegas Strip Segment Adjusted EBITDAR (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$775M vs. cons $755M |
MEDIUM |
| MGM |
Report |
MGM China Segment Adjusted EBITDAR (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~$258M vs. cons $270M |
MEDIUM |
| MGM |
Guide |
FY2026 Las Vegas Segment EBITDA growth outlook |
BETTER |
guide ~+3% vs. cons +2% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| MGM |
Guide |
MGM China reported Segment EBITDAR margin (post 3.5% brand fee) |
LOWER |
guide ~24% vs. cons 25% (2H2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MGM |
Guide |
Share repurchase pace / capital return commentary |
BETTER |
guide ~$150M Q3 buybacks vs. cons $100M (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| MGM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.4% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MGM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.2% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
A likely EPS miss (cost overrun in insurance/litigation and Macau brand-fee drag) plus China EBITDAR shortfall should trigger sell-side trims to FY26/FY27 China margin and Digital-loss assumptions even though Las Vegas EBITDAR beats on an easy comp; the implicit full-year math (brand fee now embedded all year, Brazil digital investment 'beyond original guidance') pulls out-quarter consensus down, extending the initial negative drift over the week. However, the $48.30 Diller offer sitting ~4% above the stock caps downside and the special-committee process keeps trading more M&A-driven than fundamentals-driven, so the follow-through is muted rather than sharp. |
LOW |