MGM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MGM Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$0.56 vs. cons $0.60 MEDIUM
MGM Report Las Vegas Strip Segment Adjusted EBITDAR (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$775M vs. cons $755M MEDIUM
MGM Report MGM China Segment Adjusted EBITDAR (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$258M vs. cons $270M MEDIUM
MGM Guide FY2026 Las Vegas Segment EBITDA growth outlook BETTER guide ~+3% vs. cons +2% (FY2026) LOW
MGM Guide MGM China reported Segment EBITDAR margin (post 3.5% brand fee) LOWER guide ~24% vs. cons 25% (2H2026) MEDIUM
MGM Guide Share repurchase pace / capital return commentary BETTER guide ~$150M Q3 buybacks vs. cons $100M (Q3 2026) LOW
MGM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.4% MEDIUM
MGM Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.2% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A likely EPS miss (cost overrun in insurance/litigation and Macau brand-fee drag) plus China EBITDAR shortfall should trigger sell-side trims to FY26/FY27 China margin and Digital-loss assumptions even though Las Vegas EBITDAR beats on an easy comp; the implicit full-year math (brand fee now embedded all year, Brazil digital investment 'beyond original guidance') pulls out-quarter consensus down, extending the initial negative drift over the week. However, the $48.30 Diller offer sitting ~4% above the stock caps downside and the special-committee process keeps trading more M&A-driven than fundamentals-driven, so the follow-through is muted rather than sharp. LOW