{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.56 vs. cons $0.60",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Las Vegas Strip Segment Adjusted EBITDAR (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$775M vs. cons $755M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "MGM China Segment Adjusted EBITDAR (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$258M vs. cons $270M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Las Vegas Segment EBITDA growth outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+3% vs. cons +2% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "MGM China reported Segment EBITDAR margin (post 3.5% brand fee)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~24% vs. cons 25% (2H2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Share repurchase pace / capital return commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$150M Q3 buybacks vs. cons $100M (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.4,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.2,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "A likely EPS miss (cost overrun in insurance/litigation and Macau brand-fee drag) plus China EBITDAR shortfall should trigger sell-side trims to FY26/FY27 China margin and Digital-loss assumptions even though Las Vegas EBITDAR beats on an easy comp; the implicit full-year math (brand fee now embedded all year, Brazil digital investment 'beyond original guidance') pulls out-quarter consensus down, extending the initial negative drift over the week. However, the $48.30 Diller offer sitting ~4% above the stock caps downside and the special-committee process keeps trading more M&A-driven than fundamentals-driven, so the follow-through is muted rather than sharp.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}