MGM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MGM Report BetMGM total net revenue (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$748M vs. cons $735M MEDIUM
MGM Report BetMGM adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$72M vs. cons $68M MEDIUM
MGM Report BetMGM iGaming net revenue (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$512M vs. cons $508M MEDIUM
MGM Guide BetMGM net revenue guidance (FY2026) LOWER guide ~$3.00B vs. cons $3.03B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MGM Guide BetMGM adjusted EBITDA guidance (FY2026) LOWER guide ~$305M vs. cons $315M (FY2026) MEDIUM
MGM Guide BetMGM adjusted EBITDA target (FY2027) UNCHANGED guide ~$500M vs. cons $500M (FY2027) HIGH
MGM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.2% MEDIUM
MGM Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.3% (FADE) The Q2 revenue and EBITDA beats should support the initial reaction, but an FY2026 EBITDA outlook still anchored near ~$305M versus consensus of ~$315M implies limited upward revisions and causes most of the day-1 gain to fade. LOW