MGM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MGM Report BetMGM Total Net Revenue BEAT pred ~$755 million vs. cons $742 million MEDIUM
MGM Report BetMGM Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$92 million vs. cons $86 million MEDIUM
MGM Report BetMGM Online Sports Net Revenue BEAT pred ~$255 million vs. cons $245 million LOW
MGM Guide FY2026 BetMGM Net Revenue guidance BETTER guide ~$3.10 billion vs. cons $3.00 billion (FY2026) MEDIUM
MGM Guide FY2026 BetMGM Adjusted EBITDA guidance BETTER guide ~$330 million vs. cons $325 million (FY2026) LOW
MGM Guide FY2026 cash distributed to parents BETTER guide ~$250 million vs. cons $225 million (FY2026) LOW
MGM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.3% MEDIUM
MGM Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.8% (STABILIZE) A modest BetMGM revenue and EBITDA beat plus a higher FY2026 revenue outlook should be supportive, but MGM’s 50% BetMGM ownership limits direct earnings sensitivity and the July 29, 2026 consolidated MGM release will reset attention to Las Vegas Strip margins and consolidated out-period estimates; pred +0.8% vs. day-1 +1.3%. MEDIUM