| MLM |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA (Q2, continuing ops) |
BEAT |
pred ~$745M vs. cons ~$715M |
MEDIUM |
| MLM |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2, continuing ops) |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.85 vs. cons ~$5.55 |
MEDIUM |
| MLM |
Report |
Aggregates organic shipments (Q2, y/y %) |
MISS |
pred ~+1.0% vs. cons ~+3.0% |
MEDIUM |
| MLM |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guide (midyear) |
BETTER |
guide ~$2.50B vs. cons ~$2.46B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MLM |
Guide |
FY2026 organic aggregates ASP guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~+5% vs. cons ~+5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MLM |
Guide |
FY2026 Revenue guide (continuing ops) |
BETTER |
guide ~$7.25B vs. cons ~$7.18B (FY2026) |
LOW |
| MLM |
Guide |
Post-Lhoise net leverage / deleveraging path |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~3.7x at close vs. Street ~3.7x, target <2.5x in 24 mo |
MEDIUM |
| MLM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MLM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.5% (FADE) |
An EBITDA/EPS beat plus a headline midyear guidance raise should spark a relief pop off a beaten-down base (~9% YTD, -6% on the Lhoist announcement). But the out-period math fades it: the raise is largely M&A-driven (Quikrete + New Frontier now includable), while VMC's Texas/Southeast weather tell implies organic volume estimates get trimmed even after the beat. The Lhoist dilution/leverage overhang (~15% new equity, 3.7x leverage) and slowed buyback cap follow-through, so the initial gain drifts back toward flat. |
LOW |