{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA (Q2, continuing ops)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$745M vs. cons ~$715M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2, continuing ops)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.85 vs. cons ~$5.55",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Aggregates organic shipments (Q2, y/y %)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~+1.0% vs. cons ~+3.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guide (midyear)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.50B vs. cons ~$2.46B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 organic aggregates ASP guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~+5% vs. cons ~+5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Revenue guide (continuing ops)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.25B vs. cons ~$7.18B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Post-Lhoise net leverage / deleveraging path",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3.7x at close vs. Street ~3.7x, target <2.5x in 24 mo",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "An EBITDA/EPS beat plus a headline midyear guidance raise should spark a relief pop off a beaten-down base (~9% YTD, -6% on the Lhoist announcement). But the out-period math fades it: the raise is largely M&A-driven (Quikrete + New Frontier now includable), while VMC's Texas/Southeast weather tell implies organic volume estimates get trimmed even after the beat. The Lhoist dilution/leverage overhang (~15% new equity, 3.7x leverage) and slowed buyback cap follow-through, so the initial gain drifts back toward flat.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}