MLM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MLM Report Total Revenue (continuing operations) BEAT pred ~$1.95B vs. cons $1.87B MEDIUM
MLM Report Adjusted EBITDA (continuing operations) BEAT pred ~$675M vs. cons ~$650M MEDIUM
MLM Report GAAP diluted EPS (continuing operations) MISS pred ~$4.35 vs. cons $4.62 MEDIUM
MLM Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance (raised to include NFM/Quikrete full-quarter run-rate) BETTER guide ~$2.48B vs. cons ~$2.45B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MLM Guide FY2026 Revenue guidance BETTER guide ~$7.30B vs. cons ~$7.20B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MLM Guide FY2026 Net earnings guidance (GAAP, continuing ops) LOWER guide ~$1.08B vs. cons ~$1.15B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MLM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
MLM Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.4% (FADE) The EBITDA/revenue beat and NFM-inclusive guide raise are largely pre-flagged (Nye teed up the upgrade at Q1) so much of the good news is priced, setting up a sell-the-news dynamic; VMC's Q2 print a day earlier (beat but no guide raise, weather/asphalt drag in overlapping TX/Southeast markets) is a cautionary read-through that could pressure MLM's own volume/margin commentary. A likely GAAP EPS miss (Lhoist deal costs, NFM step-up amortization, rising interest expense) creates a negative optics headline even if adjusted metrics beat, and the unresolved Lhoist leverage/dilution/integration overhang (Street PTs already cut on deal pricing) gets no new resolving information on the call - out-period net-earnings guidance likely trails the EBITDA raise as financing costs build into H2, pulling estimate revisions back down after an initial relief pop. LOW