{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue (continuing operations)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.95B vs. cons $1.87B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA (continuing operations)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$675M vs. cons ~$650M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "GAAP diluted EPS (continuing operations)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.35 vs. cons $4.62",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance (raised to include NFM/Quikrete full-quarter run-rate)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.48B vs. cons ~$2.45B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Revenue guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.30B vs. cons ~$7.20B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Net earnings guidance (GAAP, continuing ops)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.08B vs. cons ~$1.15B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.4,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "The EBITDA/revenue beat and NFM-inclusive guide raise are largely pre-flagged (Nye teed up the upgrade at Q1) so much of the good news is priced, setting up a sell-the-news dynamic; VMC's Q2 print a day earlier (beat but no guide raise, weather/asphalt drag in overlapping TX/Southeast markets) is a cautionary read-through that could pressure MLM's own volume/margin commentary. A likely GAAP EPS miss (Lhoist deal costs, NFM step-up amortization, rising interest expense) creates a negative optics headline even if adjusted metrics beat, and the unresolved Lhoist leverage/dilution/integration overhang (Street PTs already cut on deal pricing) gets no new resolving information on the call - out-period net-earnings guidance likely trails the EBITDA raise as financing costs build into H2, pulling estimate revisions back down after an initial relief pop.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}