MLM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MLM Report Q2 2026 revenue BEAT pred ~$1.92B vs. cons $1.87B MEDIUM
MLM Report Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$660M vs. cons $645M MEDIUM
MLM Report Q2 2026 aggregates shipments BEAT pred ~59.8M tons vs. cons 59.0M tons MEDIUM
MLM Guide Adjusted EBITDA LOWER guide ~$2.50B vs. cons $2.51B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MLM Guide Revenue BETTER guide ~$7.35B vs. cons $7.33B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MLM Guide Organic aggregates volume growth BETTER guide ~3.0% vs. cons 2.8% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MLM Guide Organic aggregates ASP growth UNCHANGED guide ~4.5% vs. cons 4.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MLM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.2% MEDIUM
MLM Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.8% (FADE) The operating beat and stronger shipment outlook should drive the initial gain, but FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of ~$2.50B versus consensus of $2.51B implies limited estimate upside after incorporating New Frontier. Elevated diesel costs and Lhoist financing, dilution and leverage concerns should restrain out-period revisions and partially reverse the day-1 move. MEDIUM