{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.92B vs. cons $1.87B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$660M vs. cons $645M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 aggregates shipments",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~59.8M tons vs. cons 59.0M tons",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.50B vs. cons $2.51B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.35B vs. cons $7.33B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Organic aggregates volume growth",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~3.0% vs. cons 2.8% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Organic aggregates ASP growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~4.5% vs. cons 4.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.2,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "The operating beat and stronger shipment outlook should drive the initial gain, but FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of ~$2.50B versus consensus of $2.51B implies limited estimate upside after incorporating New Frontier. Elevated diesel costs and Lhoist financing, dilution and leverage concerns should restrain out-period revisions and partially reverse the day-1 move.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}