{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS (Q2)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.51 vs. cons ~$1.49",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted domestic cigarette shipment volume (YoY)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~-4% vs. cons ~-5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Oral tobacco adjusted OCI growth (YoY)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~+1% vs. cons ~+3%",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.56-$5.72 (mid ~$5.64) vs. cons ~$5.64 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Cigarette industry volume decline outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~-4% to -5% vs. cons ~-6% (FY2026 industry)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest EPS beat plus continued cigarette-volume moderation supports a small positive day-1 reaction, but the stock is at multi-year highs (~$75, +26% YoY) and already ran ~4% into the print, so much of the good news is priced. Critically, management is likely to reaffirm (not raise) FY2026 EPS despite a hot H1 \u2014 the out-period math implies an implicit H2 deceleration, so consensus for Q3/Q4 does not move up and the beat gets absorbed. Combined with soft oral/on! momentum and first-time-CEO conservatism, gains fade over the week.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}