{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.52 vs. cons $1.50",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.38B vs. cons $5.36B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Smokeables Segment Adjusted OCI Margin",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~65.4% vs. cons ~64.9%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.56-$5.72 reaffirmed (possible slight narrowing to $5.60-$5.72) vs. cons $5.64 midpoint (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Annual Dividend Increase",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~4.5% hike to ~$1.108/share vs. cons ~4.0% hike to ~$1.102/share (declared with Q2 2026 earnings, effective Q3 2026 payment)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Full-Year Smokeables Shipment Volume Decline",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~-7.5% vs. cons ~-8.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Q1 already reset the bar higher with 'more balanced' 1H/2H phasing, so an in-line-to-modest-beat Q2 with reaffirmed (not raised) FY26 guidance leaves little fresh upside since the stock trades above average sell-side targets after a large YTD run; any initial pop from EPS/margin beat likely fades over the week as analysts model the FDA flavored-vape enforcement-discretion risk into 2H cross-category volume assumptions and note on!'s continued share loss to Zyn, pulling out-period estimates down even if headline Q2 numbers look fine.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}