{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.52 vs. cons $1.50",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue net of excise taxes",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.41B vs. cons $5.30B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted domestic cigarette shipment growth",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~-5.5% vs. cons -6.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.68 midpoint vs. cons $5.70 (FY 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 0.8,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest headline beat and better cigarette volumes support the initial reaction, but FY 2026 guidance midpoint of ~$5.68 vs. consensus $5.70 implies limited out-period upside; estimate revisions and the elevated pre-earnings valuation should reverse the day-1 gain.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}