{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.52 vs. cons $1.50",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net revenues",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.17B vs. cons $6.08B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Underlying domestic cigarette shipment-volume decline (trade-inventory adjusted)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~-4.5% vs. cons -5.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance midpoint",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.64 vs. cons $5.70 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "An EPS/revenue beat and manageable cigarette decline should initially support the shares, but a reiterated $5.56-$5.72 FY2026 range has a ~$5.64 midpoint versus ~$5.70 consensus. The beat is likely helped by price, duty-drawback and export timing while pouch investment/mix pressure persists, limiting upward FY2026/FY2027 revisions after the print.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}