MPWR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MPWR Report Q2'26 Total Revenue BEAT pred ~$915M vs. cons ~$903M MEDIUM
MPWR Report Q2'26 Non-GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$5.95 vs. cons ~$5.78 MEDIUM
MPWR Report Q2'26 Enterprise Data segment revenue MISS pred ~$308M vs. cons ~$323M MEDIUM
MPWR Guide Q3'26 Revenue guide BETTER guide ~$955M vs. cons ~$945M (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
MPWR Guide Q3'26 Non-GAAP Gross Margin guide LOWER guide ~54.9% vs. cons ~55.6% (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
MPWR Guide Enterprise Data YoY growth 'floor' commentary UNCHANGED guide ~85% vs. prior stated floor ~85% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MPWR Guide 2H26 Gross Margin headwind commentary (qualitative) LOWER guide ~cautious/reiterated headwinds vs. cons expecting ~55.8% steady-state (2H 2026) LOW
MPWR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -4.5% MEDIUM
MPWR Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Street's Enterprise Data model (~$323M, implying >120% YoY) has run well ahead of management's own communicated '85% floor,' so even a solid headline beat likely disappoints on the single metric that matters most for the AI narrative. Combined with reiterated (not raised) 2H margin caution amid mix shift toward lower-margin AI/module business, sell-side analysts are likely to trim FY26/FY27 EPS and margin estimates over the following days as they rebuild segment models around the lower implied growth rate and margin trajectory - consistent with the broader AI-supply-chain pattern seen this week (Amkor -23% despite an EPS beat, SK Hynix circuit-breaker on a miss) where markets are now punishing anything short of accelerating beat-and-raise. That argues for follow-through weakness rather than a one-day air-pocket that stabilizes. LOW