Report date: Thursday, July 30, 2026, after market close, with a Q&A webinar at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET.
MPWR enters this print coming off a record quarter. In Q1 2026, MPS achieved record quarterly revenue of $804.2 million, 7.1% higher than the fourth quarter of 2025 and 26.1% higher than the first quarter of 2025. Profitability scaled nicely alongside the top line, with non-GAAP net income of $251.3 million, or $5.10 per fully diluted share, compared with $235.3 million, or $4.79 per fully diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The standout was AI/data-center-adjacent demand. Communications revenue of $111.5 million was up 33.1% sequentially, primarily as a result of higher sales of power solutions for optical modules and switches, and was up 55.5% year over year. Enterprise Data was equally strong: revenue of $262.8 million increased 12.6% sequentially, driven by higher sales of power management solutions for AI and server applications, and was up 97.7% year over year.
For the quarter about to be reported, management guided to a big sequential step-up: revenue in the range of $890 million to $910 million, with GAAP gross margin of 55.1% to 55.7% and non-GAAP gross margin of 55.3% to 55.9%. That midpoint (~$900M) implies roughly 12% sequential growth — one of the largest quarter-over-quarter jumps in company history.
Consensus has essentially converged around management's own guidance, which is itself a signal of confidence:
The most important storyline from the Q1 call was management's dramatic upward revision to its Enterprise Data outlook. As CFO commentary laid out on the Q1 call, the segment's growth guidance has been steadily ratcheted higher through the year:
Tony Balow explained the progression: the company had guided 30–40% year-over-year growth late last year, raised that to a "50% floor" last quarter, and by Q1 2026 said "the strong ordering patterns... have kind of continued through Q1," allowing them to raise the floor to "around 85% year-over-year growth" for the segment.
Management was explicit that this was driven by backlog visibility, not new content assumptions — CFO commentary noted the raise reflected "more comfort about what's in backlog," not "a fundamental change in the growth drivers." Investors should listen closely tomorrow for whether that 85% floor gets reaffirmed, raised again, or shows signs of moderating — any wobble here given the stock's AI-driven re-rating would matter enormously.
Other segment dynamics to watch: - Communications: Optical module and switch demand was the standout in Q1 (+33% QoQ); management said they'd "put that end market above the corporate average" for growth through the year. - Storage & Computing: Bifurcated story — data-center-driven storage (SSD/HDD, DDR5) remains strong, while notebook/consumer exposure is viewed cautiously amid memory pricing/TAM headwinds. - Automotive: Guided roughly flat in 1H26 with a ramp expected in 2H26 as previously won designs (ADAS, electrification) come to market — a "show-me" story investors will want updated commentary on. - Capacity: MPS raised its manufacturing capacity target past the original $4 billion plan to a new goal of $6 billion, geographically diversified inside and outside China — a proxy for how much confidence management has in multi-year demand. - New optionality: First DDR5 high-speed interface product samples at major customers, plus early-stage robotics/humanoid and 800V silicon-carbide power exchange products for AI data centers — none expected to be material to 2026 revenue but relevant to the multi-year growth narrative.
Gross margin has been remarkably steady — for the last 4 quarters, the company has been flat at 55.5%, which is at the low end of its gross margin model for growth, which ranges mid-50s to upper 50s. For Q2, management guided gross margin modestly higher, citing improved backlog visibility, but was notably cautious about the back half: "We do, however, see some strong headwinds potentially in the second half. And so we're not — we're remaining cautious for the guidance in the second half of the year." Any commentary tomorrow on 2H26 margin trajectory (input costs, mix shift toward lower-margin AI/module business, module yield improvement) will be closely parsed.
MPWR shares have been extremely volatile in 2026 — rallying from roughly $936 in early January to an all-time high near $1,690 in early June on AI enthusiasm, before sliding back to the $1,280–$1,340 range heading into earnings. This pullback is less MPWR-specific and more reflective of a broader AI/semiconductor de-rating: sentiment in the group has soured sharply in July, with commentators noting that "greed has turned into fear for AI-related semiconductor stocks," and peers like SK Hynix and ASML getting hit hard on AI capex and China self-sufficiency concerns. Separately, a new U.S. government action banning imports of foreign-made humanoid robots, robot dogs, and power inverters (largely aimed at China) could be a modest tailwind for MPWR's own robotics/power-inverter ambitions by disadvantaging Chinese competitors in the U.S. market, though this is not yet reflected in guidance.
Analyst sentiment remains largely bullish (multiple "Strong Buy" ratings, with average price targets cited anywhere from roughly $1,400 to $1,800+ depending on source/date — a wide range reflecting how much target repricing has occurred as AI-stock volatility increased). The stock trades at a rich forward earnings multiple relative to the broader semiconductor group, meaning any miss or cautious 2H guide is likely to be punished more severely than it would be for a "cheaper" name — while a clean beat-and-raise, especially another upward revision to the Enterprise Data floor, could help the stock recover ground lost in the recent AI-stock drawdown.
One housekeeping item: an EVP (WW Sales & Marketing) executed a large pre-scheduled (10b5-1) stock sale in mid-July — routine and not indicative of a fundamental signal, but worth noting given the size (~$19.7M).
MPWR heads into Q2 earnings with easy narrative momentum (record Q1, an aggressive Enterprise Data guide, a $6B capacity target) but a much more skeptical market backdrop than it faced even two months ago, as AI-linked semiconductor names have broadly de-rated on valuation and circular-financing concerns. The setup is binary in the way many high-multiple AI-supply-chain stocks are right now: an in-line quarter with just "solid" guidance may disappoint given how much good news is already expected, while another raise to the Enterprise Data growth floor and reassuring 2H26 margin commentary could be the catalyst that reverses the stock's summer slide.