MRNA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-31

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MRNA Report Total Revenue MISS pred ~$90M vs. cons ~$115M MEDIUM
MRNA Report GAAP/Non-GAAP EPS (net loss per share) BEAT pred ~-$1.80 vs. cons ~-$1.98 MEDIUM
MRNA Report R&D Expense (cost discipline run-rate) IN-LINE pred ~$740M vs. cons ~$750M LOW
MRNA Guide FY2026 Revenue Growth Target UNCHANGED guide ~up to 10% vs. cons ~9% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MRNA Guide FY2026 Adjusted Cash Costs (R&D+SG&A) UNCHANGED guide ~$4.2B vs. cons ~$4.2B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MRNA Guide Year-end 2026 Cash & Investments (pre/post Arbutus payment) UNCHANGED guide ~$4.5-5.0B vs. cons ~$4.7B (FY2026 year-end) LOW
MRNA Guide Melanoma Phase 3 Interim Analysis Timing Commentary UNKNOWN guide ~Q4 2026/2027 vs. cons ~Oct-Nov 2026 (2026 event window) LOW
MRNA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% MEDIUM
MRNA Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.5% (FADE) Revenue miss vs. stale higher consensus triggers initial negative reaction, but with revenue base still tiny (<$150M/qtr) relative to $23-24B market cap, the earnings print carries limited information content; attention rapidly shifts to the Aug 5 flu PDUFA decision and pending melanoma Phase 3 interim, causing the earnings-specific residual to fade as trading reverts to catalyst-driven positioning rather than compounding on the print itself. Any implicit H2 revenue cut (H1 well below some outside estimates) could pressure out-year numbers further, but guidance reiteration on FY growth/cost targets limits follow-through downside. LOW