| MRNA |
Report |
Total Revenue |
MISS |
pred ~$90M vs. cons ~$115M |
MEDIUM |
| MRNA |
Report |
GAAP/Non-GAAP EPS (net loss per share) |
BEAT |
pred ~-$1.80 vs. cons ~-$1.98 |
MEDIUM |
| MRNA |
Report |
R&D Expense (cost discipline run-rate) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$740M vs. cons ~$750M |
LOW |
| MRNA |
Guide |
FY2026 Revenue Growth Target |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~up to 10% vs. cons ~9% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MRNA |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted Cash Costs (R&D+SG&A) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$4.2B vs. cons ~$4.2B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MRNA |
Guide |
Year-end 2026 Cash & Investments (pre/post Arbutus payment) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$4.5-5.0B vs. cons ~$4.7B (FY2026 year-end) |
LOW |
| MRNA |
Guide |
Melanoma Phase 3 Interim Analysis Timing Commentary |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~Q4 2026/2027 vs. cons ~Oct-Nov 2026 (2026 event window) |
LOW |
| MRNA |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MRNA |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.5% (FADE) |
Revenue miss vs. stale higher consensus triggers initial negative reaction, but with revenue base still tiny (<$150M/qtr) relative to $23-24B market cap, the earnings print carries limited information content; attention rapidly shifts to the Aug 5 flu PDUFA decision and pending melanoma Phase 3 interim, causing the earnings-specific residual to fade as trading reverts to catalyst-driven positioning rather than compounding on the print itself. Any implicit H2 revenue cut (H1 well below some outside estimates) could pressure out-year numbers further, but guidance reiteration on FY growth/cost targets limits follow-through downside. |
LOW |