Report date: Friday, July 31, 2026, before the market opens
Conference call: 8:00 a.m. ET (investors.modernatx.com)
Moderna’s second quarter is seasonally small, so the headline revenue and EPS numbers are unlikely to determine the stock’s medium-term direction by themselves. The more consequential questions are:
A modest quarterly beat caused by shipment timing would be less important than credible guidance, regulatory clarity and unchanged catalyst timelines.
| Metric | Current expectation |
|---|---|
| Q2 revenue consensus | Approximately $103 million |
| Company Q2 revenue guidance | $50–$100 million |
| Q2 EPS consensus | Approximately $(2.04) |
| Q2 2025 revenue | $142 million |
| Q2 2025 GAAP EPS | $(2.13) |
Published consensus estimates cluster around $103 million of revenue and a loss of roughly $2.00–$2.10 per share. That puts the Street slightly above management’s stated revenue range, which assumed an approximately even split between U.S. and international sales. (marketbeat.com)
The second quarter is normally a trough between respiratory-vaccine seasons. Revenue can also move between quarters based on government-contract delivery schedules. Q1 demonstrated this dynamic: revenue reached $389 million, largely because of international deliveries under long-term strategic partnerships. (sec.gov)
Investors should therefore distinguish between:
A revenue beat accompanied by lower second-half expectations would not be a clean positive.
Moderna entered the quarter targeting up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, driven by international strategic partnerships and greater mNEXSPIKE penetration. The outlook did not assume 2026 revenue from the seasonal flu vaccine or the flu/COVID combination product.
At the top end, 10% growth from 2025 revenue implies roughly $2.14 billion in 2026 revenue. After $389 million in Q1 and the $50–$100 million Q2 guide, Moderna would still need approximately $1.65–$1.70 billion in the second half to reach that level.
That is possible given the fall respiratory season, but it makes the following commentary critical:
Best outcome: management reiterates the growth target and sounds increasingly confident about contracted international revenue and fall demand.
Warning sign: a guide reduction attributed to lower U.S. vaccination rates or delayed government orders. Shipment timing would be less damaging than evidence of structurally weaker demand, but either could pressure estimates.
Moderna ended Q1 with $7.5 billion in cash and investments, down from $8.1 billion at year-end 2025. Its 2026 framework called for:
The cash forecast also incorporates a $950 million Arbutus/Genevant settlement payment expected in Q3. (sec.gov)
The Q2 cash balance matters more than the accounting loss. Investors should watch:
A quarterly EPS beat driven by delayed R&D would be low quality. A beat accompanied by lower full-year cash costs would be much more meaningful.
The FDA’s PDUFA goal date for Moderna’s seasonal flu vaccine, mRNA-1010, is August 5, 2026—five days after earnings. The candidate previously demonstrated 26.6% superior relative efficacy to a licensed standard-dose flu vaccine in adults 50 and older.
Management described the FDA review as proceeding normally on the Q1 call. Approval would give Moderna a fifth approved product and strengthen its respiratory franchise ahead of potential 2027 commercialization. Importantly, because management excluded flu revenue from its 2026 forecast, approval would principally affect 2027 expectations rather than the current-year guide.
Questions investors will want answered:
Management may avoid detailed FDA commentary so close to the action date. Nevertheless, any indication of a delay or unresolved review issue would likely outweigh the Q2 financial results.
Moderna and Merck’s individualized cancer therapy, intismeran autogene, remains the most important non-respiratory asset.
Five-year Phase 2b melanoma data presented at ASCO showed:
The fully enrolled Phase 3 adjuvant melanoma study is expected to conduct an interim analysis in 2026. Management has said that this interim analysis can either declare success or allow the study to continue; there is no planned futility outcome at that analysis.
The earnings call should clarify:
A narrowed timeline would be positive. A shift from “2026” to open-ended event-driven language would likely be interpreted as a delay, even if the underlying trial remains healthy.
The Phase 3 mRNA-1403 study is fully enrolled for a second Northern Hemisphere season, with efficacy data expected in 2026 subject to case accrual.
Because no norovirus vaccine is currently approved, a statistically significant result with clinically meaningful efficacy could create a sizable new commercial category. Management previously suggested that efficacy above roughly 50% would be meaningful.
Key question: Has sufficient case accrual occurred to preserve a 2026 readout?
Moderna’s mRNA-3927 registrational study has reached target enrollment, with data expected in 2026. This is important not only for the individual program but also as proof of concept for repeat-dose systemic mRNA therapeutics.
Investors should listen for:
Moderna’s June Science Day highlighted T-cell engagers, cancer-antigen therapies and an in-vivo CAR-T program. These assets help establish long-term optionality, but they should remain secondary in an earnings reaction unless management reports a major clinical signal or meaningful change in spending. (modernatx.com)
The Arbutus/Genevant settlement has already created a major charge and upcoming cash payment. Separately, Sanofi filed a new patent suit in July alleging that Moderna’s COVID vaccine infringes patents covering mRNA and lipid-nanoparticle technology. Sanofi is seeking compensation rather than an injunction blocking vaccine sales. (sahmcapital.com)
The new case is unlikely to affect Q2 operating results, but investors should look for any disclosure regarding:
Given the early stage of the suit, management may offer little beyond standard legal language.
That outcome would demonstrate execution but would not materially change the investment thesis.
This is more of a guidance-and-catalyst call than a quarterly earnings call. The Street already expects a small seasonal quarter and another sizable loss. The meaningful upside case requires management to demonstrate that:
The single most important near-term item is likely the August 5 flu decision, while the biggest fundamental value driver remains the Phase 3 intismeran melanoma result. A clean Q2 report can support confidence in both, but it will not substitute for success on those catalysts.