MRNA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-31

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MRNA Report 2Q26 total revenue MISS pred ~$88M vs. cons $104M MEDIUM
MRNA Report 2Q26 GAAP EPS IN-LINE pred ~($2.06) vs. cons ($2.03) MEDIUM
MRNA Report Quarter-end cash, cash equivalents and investments IN-LINE pred ~$6.8B vs. cons $6.8B LOW
MRNA Guide FY26 revenue outlook UNCHANGED guide ~$2.14B vs. cons $2.05B (FY26) MEDIUM
MRNA Guide FY26 year-end cash and investments UNCHANGED guide ~$4.75B vs. cons $4.75B (FY26) MEDIUM
MRNA Guide FY26 adjusted cash-cost outlook UNCHANGED guide ~$4.2B vs. cons $4.2B (FY26) MEDIUM
MRNA Guide Late-2026 pivotal-readout timing UNCHANGED guide ~3 pivotal programs with 2026 data vs. cons 3 programs (2H26) MEDIUM
MRNA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -4.5% MEDIUM
MRNA Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A ~$88M revenue result is below the ~$104M Street view and below the prior $50–100M quarterly range midpoint, while likely reaffirmed FY26 targets leave the implied 2H26 revenue burden high: implied 2H26 revenue ~$1.65B versus consensus ~$1.56B. That combination should pull near-term revenue and cash-flow estimates lower despite an approximately in-line EPS result. MEDIUM