MRNA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-31

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MRNA Report Q2 2026 Total Revenue BEAT pred ~$120M vs. cons $105.5M MEDIUM
MRNA Report Q2 2026 Operating EPS (Diluted) BEAT pred ~-$1.70 vs. cons -$1.89 MEDIUM
MRNA Report Q2 2026 Adj. Cash Cost (run-rate) BEAT pred on-track / slight beat vs. $4.2B FY target MEDIUM
MRNA Guide FY 2026 Revenue (FY2026) UNCHANGED guide 'up to 10% growth' reiterated vs. cons $2,088M — implicit H2 cut embedded HIGH
MRNA Guide FY 2026 Adj. Cash Cost (FY2026) UNCHANGED guide ~$4.2B reiterated vs. cons ~$4.2B HIGH
MRNA Guide mRNA-1010 Flu Tone (qualitative) BETTER confident language post-9-0 VRBPAC vs. prior 'encouraged' HIGH
MRNA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.5% MEDIUM
MRNA Return 5-day cumulative residual +9.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — flu PDUFA (Aug 5) within the 5-day window drives recovery; base case is approval given 9-0 VRBPAC vote MEDIUM