| MSFT |
Report |
Azure growth (cc) |
BEAT |
pred ~41% vs. cons 40% |
MEDIUM |
| MSFT |
Report |
Total revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$88.6B vs. cons $87.7B |
MEDIUM |
| MSFT |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$4.42 vs. cons $4.30 |
MEDIUM |
| MSFT |
Guide |
CY2026 capex (incl. leases) |
LOWER |
guide ~$195B vs. cons $190B (CY2026) — a raise is negative for the stock |
MEDIUM |
| MSFT |
Guide |
Azure growth (cc) next quarter |
BETTER |
guide ~40% vs. cons ~39% (FQ1 2027), with H2 CY26 acceleration reaffirmed |
LOW |
| MSFT |
Guide |
FQ1'27 total revenue |
BETTER |
guide ~$79.5B vs. cons ~$78.5B (FQ1 2027) |
LOW |
| MSFT |
Guide |
FY2027 revenue/operating income growth |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~double-digit / ~13-14% vs. cons ~13% (FY2027) reaffirmed |
LOW |
| MSFT |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| MSFT |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.5% (FADE) |
A June-quarter beat (Azure ~41%, EPS ~$4.42) plus a washed-out, low-expectations setup (stock -17% YTD) drives a modest day-1 relief pop. But the fade thesis dominates over 5 days: the near-certain CY26 capex raise (~$195B vs $190B on memory/component pricing) reignites the ROI/FCF overhang that just punished Alphabet despite its own beat+accel; FCF is compressing (~$16B/qtr) with no clear balance path (Evercore's Materne). Out-period math is mixed — Azure/Copilot revisions tick up but capex and depreciation cuts pull FY27 EPS estimates down, so the initial gain gives back most of itself as capex scrutiny reasserts. |
LOW |