MSFT Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MSFT Report Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$88.15B vs. cons $87.67B MEDIUM
MSFT Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$4.31 vs. cons $4.24 MEDIUM
MSFT Report Azure constant-currency growth BEAT pred ~41.0% vs. cons 40.0% MEDIUM
MSFT Guide Total revenue UNCHANGED guide ~$91.8B vs. cons $91.45B (FY2027 Q1) MEDIUM
MSFT Guide Azure constant-currency growth BETTER guide ~41.5% vs. cons 41.0% (FY2027 Q1) MEDIUM
MSFT Guide Capital expenditures UNCHANGED guide ~$220B vs. cons $220B (FY2027) LOW
MSFT Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.5% MEDIUM
MSFT Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.8% (FADE) The initial Azure beat and relief from no material capex increase support day one, but roughly $220B of FY2027 capex keeps depreciation and free-cash-flow estimates constrained. Modest EPS revisions provide limited out-period upside, causing part of the initial gain to fade. LOW