MSFT Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MSFT Report Adjusted diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$4.28 vs. cons $4.17 MEDIUM
MSFT Report Azure and other cloud services growth (constant currency) BEAT pred ~41.0% vs. cons 39.8% MEDIUM
MSFT Report Total revenue IN-LINE pred ~$88.10B vs. cons $87.55B MEDIUM
MSFT Guide FY27 Q1 Azure and other cloud services growth (constant currency) BETTER guide ~41.0% vs. cons 40.0% (FY27 Q1) MEDIUM
MSFT Guide FY27 Q1 total revenue BETTER guide ~$95.90B vs. cons $94.80B (FY27 Q1) MEDIUM
MSFT Guide Calendar-2026 capital expenditures and finance leases LOWER guide ~$195.0B vs. cons $190.1B (CY2026) MEDIUM
MSFT Guide FY27 Q1 Microsoft Cloud gross margin LOWER guide ~63.5% vs. cons 64.0% (FY27 Q1) MEDIUM
MSFT Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.5% MEDIUM
MSFT Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.0% (FADE) Azure growth pred ~41.0% versus cons 39.8% and EPS pred ~$4.28 versus cons $4.17 should initially outweigh capex anxiety, but a CY2026 capex guide near ~$195.0B versus cons $190.1B plus cloud-margin guide near ~63.5% versus cons 64.0% limits FY27 free-cash-flow and margin upside; estimate revisions should moderate after the initial beat. MEDIUM