MTD Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MTD Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$10.95 vs. cons $10.82 (guide $10.70-10.85) MEDIUM
MTD Report Net sales (Q2'26, reported) IN-LINE pred ~$1.06B vs. cons ~$1.05B (~+3.5% LC vs. guide ~+3%) MEDIUM
MTD Report Adjusted operating margin (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~28.4% vs. cons ~28.6% (vs. 28.8% Q2'25) MEDIUM
MTD Guide FY2026 adjusted EPS guide UNCHANGED guide ~$46.40-47.05 (mid ~$46.72) vs. cons ~$46.70 (FY2026) MEDIUM
MTD Guide Q3'26 adjusted EPS guide LOWER guide ~$11.40-11.55 (mid ~$11.48) vs. cons ~$11.60 (Q3'26) MEDIUM
MTD Guide FY2026 local-currency sales growth (H2 ramp credibility) UNCHANGED guide ~+4% vs. cons ~+4% (FY2026); H2 organic ramp vs. ~1.5% Q2 organic is the debate MEDIUM
MTD Guide FY2026 buyback pace UNCHANGED guide ~$825-875M vs. cons ~$850M (FY2026) LOW
MTD Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% LOW
MTD Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.5% (FADE) Stock rallied ~35% off the May trough and ~9% in the week into the print, so the 'cheap and hated' cushion is gone and the bar is high. A likely modest EPS beat with only a maintained (not raised) organic framework leaves the H2 acceleration math unresolved: Q2 organic ~1.5% vs. the ~4% FY target still requires a big second-half ramp, and a light Q3 guide implies out-period estimates drift lower even after a headline beat. With last quarter's -15% reaction on a beat-and-raise as a template, expect an initial soft/negative reaction that fades further as sell-side trims out-quarter estimates toward the implicit H2 cut. LOW