NCLH Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NCLH Report Adj. EPS BEAT pred ~$0.40 vs. cons $0.38 MEDIUM
NCLH Report Adj. EBITDA BEAT pred ~$645M vs. cons $632M MEDIUM
NCLH Report Net Yield (CC) YoY IN-LINE pred ~-3.4% vs. cons -3.6% MEDIUM
NCLH Guide Q3'26 Net Yield (CC) guide LOWER guide ~-8% vs. cons -7% (Q3'26) MEDIUM
NCLH Guide FY26 Adj. EBITDA guide LOWER guide ~$2.50B vs. cons $2.56B (FY26) MEDIUM
NCLH Guide FY26 Adj. EPS guide LOWER guide ~$1.55 vs. cons $1.62 (FY26) LOW
NCLH Guide FY26 fuel cost assumption LOWER guide ~$820M vs. cons $800M (FY26) LOW
NCLH Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.5% MEDIUM
NCLH Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Q2 likely beats on cost, but the crux is the forward look: a 'significantly weaker' Q3 (Europe ~38% of deployment) guided to high-single-digit negative yields plus escalating US-Iran/fuel risk raises the odds of a second consecutive FY cut. Out-period math means implicit Q3/FY cuts pull estimates down even after a headline beat. With NCLH up ~13% into the print (7/23 $18.71 -> 7/29 $21.08) on RCL sympathy and a sector rally, the bar is high and there is no room for a soft guide, so initial weakness compounds as negative revisions flow through the next week. LOW