NXPI Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NXPI Report Q2'26 Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$3.47B vs. cons $3.45B (+0.6%, within guide midpoint) MEDIUM
NXPI Report Q2'26 Non-GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$3.62 vs. cons $3.54 (~+2.3%) MEDIUM
NXPI Report Q2'26 Non-GAAP Gross Margin IN-LINE pred ~58.2% vs. cons 58.0% HIGH
NXPI Guide Q3'26 Revenue guide BETTER guide ~$3.60B vs. cons ~$3.57B (Q3'26, up sequentially confirming 2H accel) LOW
NXPI Guide Q3'26 Non-GAAP EPS guide UNCHANGED guide ~$3.74 vs. cons ~$3.73 (Q3'26) LOW
NXPI Guide Q3'26 Non-GAAP Gross Margin guide UNCHANGED guide ~58.5% vs. cons ~58.5% (Q3'26, utilization mid-80s in 2H) MEDIUM
NXPI Guide 2026 Data-center revenue outlook BETTER guide ~$550M+ vs. prior >$500M (FY2026, control-plane ramp) LOW
NXPI Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.0% MEDIUM
NXPI Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.0% (FADE) Stock derisked ~19% off the May high into the print, so a modest EPS beat plus an up-sequential Q3 guide and stronger data-center/2H narrative drives an initial relief pop (+~3% day 1). But out-period math is the drag: with the guide already known and Street EPS fractionally above it, a Q3 guide only slightly ahead implies limited upward FY revisions, and any conservatism on the un-guided 2H means implicit estimate trims. Combined with the sector-wide beat-and-fade pattern set by TXN and STM (both sold off on elevated expectations/valuation), the gain partially gives back over 5 days as sell-side digests the conservative out-period framing. LOW