NXPI Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NXPI Report Q2 Revenue BEAT pred ~$3.50B vs. cons $3.45-3.47B HIGH
NXPI Report Q2 Non-GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$3.62 vs. cons $3.54 MEDIUM
NXPI Report Q2 Non-GAAP Gross Margin IN-LINE pred ~58.2% vs. cons 58.0% MEDIUM
NXPI Guide Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance BETTER guide ~$3.62B vs. cons ~$3.58B (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
NXPI Guide Q3 2026 Non-GAAP EPS Guidance BETTER guide ~$3.75 vs. cons ~$3.68 (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
NXPI Guide FY2026 Data Center Revenue Trajectory UNCHANGED guide ~$520M vs. prior guide >$500M (FY2026) LOW
NXPI Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
NXPI Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.5% (FADE) NXP likely delivers a beat-and-raise consistent with its Q1 pattern and reaffirms 2027 targets, which combined with a ~20% pullback from May highs sets up a relief pop on day 1. But out-period math works against follow-through: Q3 guide implies a deceleration in sequential growth into seasonally softer Q4, China auto/unit weakness remains an unresolved offset story rather than a resolved one, and the sector tape has punished even clean beats (TXN -3.6%, INTC -12.2%) as investors rotate out of semis on AI-capex/valuation worries. Analysts will likely trim H2/FY27 estimates modestly on conservative Q4 seasonality and margin-ramp timing (VSMC/ESMC not fully online until 2028), causing the initial pop to fade over the week even if the headline print itself was strong. MEDIUM