| ODFL |
Report |
Diluted EPS |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$1.50 vs. cons ~$1.52 |
MEDIUM |
| ODFL |
Report |
Revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$1.55B vs. cons ~$1.55B |
MEDIUM |
| ODFL |
Report |
Operating Ratio (lower=better) |
MISS |
pred ~73.4% vs. cons ~73.0% |
MEDIUM |
| ODFL |
Guide |
July MTD tons/day YoY (mid-qtr update) |
LOWER |
guide ~-2% vs. cons ~+0.5% YoY (July/Q3-to-date) |
MEDIUM |
| ODFL |
Guide |
Q2→Q3 sequential Operating Ratio |
LOWER |
guide ~73.0% (roughly flat seq., normal seasonality) vs. cons ~72.3% (Q3'26) |
MEDIUM |
| ODFL |
Guide |
Ex-fuel yield / rev-per-cwt trend |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~+5% vs. cons ~+5% ex-fuel (Q3'26) |
MEDIUM |
| ODFL |
Guide |
2026 capex plan |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$265M vs. cons ~$265M (FY26) |
HIGH |
| ODFL |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ODFL |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-5.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Stock is up ~44% YTD (vs SPY +8.6%) and viewed as fully valued (>35x fwd), priced for a YoY-positive tonnage inflection. A fuel-inflated revenue line masks earnings-neutral cost drag; an in-line EPS with a ~73.4% OR (slightly worse than the ~72.7-73.2% seasonal frame) plus tonnage still down YoY and only 'flat seasonal' Q2->Q3 OR guidance fails the beat-and-raise bar. Out-period math then bites: implicit Q3/2H estimate trims (fringe/health-cost normalization, fuel-neutral incrementals) pull numbers down after the print, so the initial negative reaction follows through lower over the week rather than getting bought as a quality dip. |
LOW |