{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.50 vs. cons ~$1.52",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.55B vs. cons ~$1.55B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Operating Ratio (lower=better)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~73.4% vs. cons ~73.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "July MTD tons/day YoY (mid-qtr update)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~-2% vs. cons ~+0.5% YoY (July/Q3-to-date)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2\u2192Q3 sequential Operating Ratio",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~73.0% (roughly flat seq., normal seasonality) vs. cons ~72.3% (Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Ex-fuel yield / rev-per-cwt trend",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~+5% vs. cons ~+5% ex-fuel (Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2026 capex plan",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$265M vs. cons ~$265M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -5.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock is up ~44% YTD (vs SPY +8.6%) and viewed as fully valued (>35x fwd), priced for a YoY-positive tonnage inflection. A fuel-inflated revenue line masks earnings-neutral cost drag; an in-line EPS with a ~73.4% OR (slightly worse than the ~72.7-73.2% seasonal frame) plus tonnage still down YoY and only 'flat seasonal' Q2->Q3 OR guidance fails the beat-and-raise bar. Out-period math then bites: implicit Q3/2H estimate trims (fringe/health-cost normalization, fuel-neutral incrementals) pull numbers down after the print, so the initial negative reaction follows through lower over the week rather than getting bought as a quality dip.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}