ODFL Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ODFL Report Q2 2026 EPS BEAT pred ~$1.56 vs. cons ~$1.51 MEDIUM
ODFL Report Q2 2026 Total Revenue BEAT pred ~$1.555B vs. cons ~$1.53B MEDIUM
ODFL Report Q2 2026 Operating Ratio MISS pred ~73.1% vs. cons ~72.7% MEDIUM
ODFL Guide Q3 2026 sequential OR improvement (seasonal) LOWER guide ~100-125bps sequential improvement (implying ~72.0% OR) vs. cons ~150bps improvement to ~71.3% (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
ODFL Guide LTL tons per day y/y trend into Q3 BETTER guide ~flat-to-(1)% y/y (continued narrowing) vs. cons ~(2.5)% y/y (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
ODFL Guide FY2026 Capex framework BETTER guide ~$300M vs. prior/cons ~$265M (FY2026) LOW
ODFL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.0% MEDIUM
ODFL Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.5% (FADE) Stock is priced for perfection (near/above avg PT after ~47% YTD run) heading into the print, so a modest headline EPS/revenue beat driven mostly by fuel-surcharge pass-through is unlikely to be enough — similar to KNX/R beats that still sold off. The OR miss vs. the 300-350bp seasonal norm, combined with management's explicit 2022 fuel-cost-headwind analog, gives sell-side room to trim forward OR/margin estimates even after a top-line beat, and tonnage still running negative y/y keeps the volume-inflection thesis unconfirmed — implicit out-period margin cuts should pull the stock lower over the following days rather than stabilize or extend an initial pop. MEDIUM