OKE Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
OKE Report Adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2026, consolidated) BEAT pred ~$2.10B vs. cons ~$2.02B MEDIUM
OKE Report Adjusted diluted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$1.45 vs. cons ~$1.41 MEDIUM
OKE Report NGL raw feed throughput (Q2 2026, MBbl/d) BEAT pred ~1,680 MBbl/d vs. cons ~1,625 MBbl/d LOW
OKE Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint BETTER guide ~$8.35B vs. cons $8.25B (FY2026) MEDIUM
OKE Guide FY2026 diluted EPS guidance midpoint BETTER guide ~$5.60 vs. cons $5.53 (FY2026) MEDIUM
OKE Guide FY2026 growth capex guidance midpoint UNCHANGED guide ~$2.95B vs. cons $2.95B (FY2026) MEDIUM
OKE Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.0% MEDIUM
OKE Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.3% (FADE) A likely EPS/EBITDA beat plus a modest FY26 EBITDA/EPS guide raise should produce an initial positive pop, but the Q1 call already flagged that a chunk of the upside (Waha-Katy differentials, storm-related marketing gains) is transitory and set to normalize as H2 pipeline egress comes online — meaning even a clean beat leaves the Natural Gas Pipelines run-rate lower for 2H26/2027 models. With Morgan Stanley's multiyear-growth-conviction debate unresolved and no confirmed step-change in data-center pipeline contracting, sell-side analysts are likely to trim out-period (FY27) EBITDA/EPS estimates for the 'one-time' components even while nudging FY26 up, causing the initial pop to fade over the week as the market digests that the growth trajectory versus Targa/peers remains the same open question. LOW