Report date: Monday, August 3, 2026 (after market close) | Call: 2026Q2 Earnings Call
OKE shares have had a strong run in 2026, rallying from roughly $74 at the start of the year to the low-to-mid $90s heading into the print, with a 52-week range of $64.02–$96.07 and a market cap around $57 billion. The stock closed near $90.83 on July 31, just below its recent highs, after a choppy late-July pullback from a peak above $93.
Sentiment is mixed heading into the quarter. On one hand, Morgan Stanley downgraded OKE to Equal Weight from Overweight (price target cut to $103 from $113), arguing that a lack of investor conviction in ONEOK's multiyear EBITDA growth trajectory is likely to cap outperformance, and expressing a preference for peer Targa Resources. Wells Fargo also trimmed its price target to $98 from $100 (while keeping an Overweight rating). On the other hand, sell-side estimate revisions into the print have been positive on the bottom line even as the "growth debate" simmers — this sets up a report where beat-and-raise execution matters more than the headline number.
ONEOK's first-quarter 2026 results, reported April 28, were strong and came with a guidance raise. Net income rose 12% year-over-year to $776 million ($1.23 diluted EPS, or $1.30 excluding a $0.07 non-cash impairment tied to the Powder Springs Logistics JV), and adjusted EBITDA rose 13% to just under $2.0 billion. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to a net income midpoint of ~$3.5 billion, diluted EPS midpoint of $5.53, and adjusted EBITDA midpoint of $8.25 billion (range $8.0–$8.5 billion), while holding capex guidance unchanged at $2.7–$3.2 billion.
Critically, CFO Walt Hulse told investors that Q1 is structurally the seasonally weakest quarter and that management expects "the shape of that curve to continue" through the year, with a bigger step-up increasingly likely in the back half given stronger volumes, completed projects, and market tailwinds. That framing matters directly for Q2: investors should expect sequential improvement from Q1's ~$2.0 billion adjusted EBITDA, but the real proof point is whether guidance commentary reinforces (or walks back) the "back-half loaded" and "momentum into 2027" narrative.
a) Waha-to-Katy differentials normalizing. A big chunk of Q1's upside came from unusually wide Waha Hub-to-Katy natural gas price differentials (a $70 million benefit in the Natural Gas Pipelines segment) plus Winter Storm Fern-related marketing gains. Management explicitly guided that these differentials should normalize as new pipeline egress comes online in the second half of the year — so a moderation here is expected and shouldn't be read as a negative surprise unless it's abrupt or larger than flagged.
b) Hedging and commodity capture. ONEOK enters most years roughly 75% hedged on commodity-sensitive volumes, meaning the unhedged ~25% — plus any incremental volume growth — captures the full benefit of the sharp rise in the commodity curve since late Q1. With oil and gas prices elevated for much of Q2 amid geopolitical turmoil (see below), watch for commentary on how much of that upside has already been realized versus banked for the back half and into 2027.
c) Butane blending / RBOB spreads. Refined Products and Crude segment economics are sensitive to butane-to-RBOB blending margins. Management said it entered spring "significantly hedged," limiting exposure to widening spreads, and has since layered in fall 2026 hedges at higher prices plus some 2027 hedges. Watch for confirmation that blending volumes (driven by system throughput and completed synergy projects, not EPA RVP waivers) remained strong through the summer driving season.
d) Volume growth across NGLs, gas processing, and refined products. Q1 saw broad-based strength: NGL raw feed throughput +15% y/y, refined products volumes shipped +12%, natural gas processed +5%, with standout growth in the Gulf Coast/Permian region (NGL volumes +31% y/y) and Rocky Mountain (+11%). The key question for Q2 is whether producer activity — which management described as "leaning in" via faster well completions and reduced downtime, particularly among private/PE-backed operators — is translating into sustained volume growth, or whether larger public E&Ps remain disciplined and wait for further curve strength before adding rigs.
e) Capital projects on schedule. Watch for updates on: the Delaware Basin processing expansion (110 MMcf/d, targeted for Q3 2026 completion); the Cutter plant in the Powder River Basin (60 MMcf/d, Q4 2026); the Denver-area refined products pipeline expansion (35,000 Bbl/d, mid-2026); and Phase 1 of the Medford NGL fractionator (100,000 Bbl/d, Q4 2026). Management has stressed these projects are "on time and on budget," with the bulk of major growth capex expected to wind down by mid-2027, after which free cash flow should meaningfully inflect.
f) Data center / power demand pipeline projects. A notable theme from Q1 was that AI/hyperscaler-related pipeline opportunities in Texas and Oklahoma have grown from an expected ~$50 million scale to $400–700 million projects, as hyperscaler power needs require larger, longer-reach pipe. Any update on contracting progress or additional FID announcements here would be a incremental positive for the multi-year growth story that skeptics (like Morgan Stanley) are questioning.
g) Balance sheet and capital return. ONEOK redeemed $491 million of notes and entered a $1.2 billion term loan in April; leverage is trending toward targets as EBITDA grows. Investors should listen for any updated timeline on buybacks or incremental capital return as free cash flow inflects in 2027, as well as confirmation of the current $1.07/share quarterly dividend ($4.28 annualized).
This quarter's setup is complicated by an active U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 and has kept oil prices elevated and volatile — Brent crude rose 24% in July alone, with intermittent tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz and explicit Iranian threats against Gulf energy infrastructure. As of August 2, oil prices actually fell sharply after President Trump said a strike on Iran had been called off amid talk of a deal involving reopening the Strait of Hormuz, showing just how headline-sensitive commodity prices — and by extension OKE's realized pricing and optimization opportunities — have been all quarter.
Management has argued this backdrop is structurally positive for ONEOK: on the Q1 call, CEO Pierce Norton noted that damage to competing global LNG capacity (specifically citing Qatar) likely redirects future LNG expansion capital back toward the U.S., reinforcing NGL and export infrastructure demand tied to ONEOK's LPG export dock, which has seen accelerating customer interest. Whether that thesis shows up in accelerated contracting or volume data in the Q2 numbers — versus remaining a forward-looking talking point — is worth scrutinizing.
This preview is based on ONEOK's Q1 2026 earnings release and conference call, current analyst estimates, and recent sell-side commentary compiled ahead of the August 3, 2026 report. All estimates are subject to change before the actual release.