Timing clarification: ONEOK is scheduled to release second-quarter results after the market closes today, Monday, August 3, 2026. The earnings call is tomorrow, August 4, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern.
ONEOK enters the quarter with solid operating momentum, recently raised guidance and several identifiable volume and project catalysts. The central question is not simply whether second-quarter adjusted EBITDA exceeds last year’s $1.98 billion; it is whether results demonstrate that the company can deliver the back-half acceleration embedded in its $8.0-$8.5 billion full-year outlook without relying too heavily on temporary marketing and price-differential benefits.
The likely debate will center on three issues:
A clean report would include adjusted EBITDA above the first quarter’s $2.0 billion, continued broad-based volume growth, reaffirmed or increased guidance, and on-time project execution.
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q1 2026 | Current 2026 guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.98B | $2.00B | $8.0B-$8.5B |
| Net income | $853M | $776M | $3.21B-$3.79B |
| Diluted EPS | $1.34 | $1.23 | $5.53 midpoint |
| Capital expenditures | $749M | $864M | $2.7B-$3.2B |
First-quarter EPS included a $0.07-per-share after-tax noncash impairment related to the Powder Springs Logistics joint venture.
At the $8.25 billion guidance midpoint, ONEOK needs approximately $6.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA over the final three quarters, or about $2.08 billion per quarter on average. Management has said the first quarter should be the year’s lowest EBITDA quarter and expects an upward trajectory through the balance of 2026.
That makes roughly $2.0 billion an undemanding hurdle. The more relevant test is whether second-quarter results and commentary support an average above $2.08 billion for the remainder of the year, with the fourth quarter benefiting from additional projects and seasonal blending activity.
The NGL segment was the largest first-quarter contributor, producing $706 million of adjusted EBITDA, up 11% year over year. Raw-feed throughput increased 15% to 1.493 million barrels per day, including:
The strongest second-quarter signal would be continued throughput growth, particularly from newly connected Permian plants and increased ethane recovery in the Bakken and Mid-Continent.
The offset is economics per barrel. First-quarter exchange-service earnings were reduced by lower average fee rates and narrower fractionation differentials. Investors should therefore distinguish between:
First-quarter NGL EBITDA also included $42 million of higher optimization and marketing earnings, including $25 million from sales of purity NGL inventory.
Key questions:
Natural Gas Pipelines generated $339 million of first-quarter adjusted EBITDA, up from $212 million a year earlier. That performance included:
The storm contribution should not repeat, but management previously expected favorable Waha-to-Katy differentials to continue through the second quarter and into the third quarter before additional Permian takeaway capacity normalizes the spread.
This creates an important earnings-quality test. A sequential decline from the unusually strong first quarter would not necessarily be negative if firm transportation revenue, contracted capacity and underlying utilization remain strong.
At the end of the first quarter, consolidated transportation capacity was 93% contracted, versus 91% a year earlier.
Key questions:
The data-center opportunity deserves particular attention. Management said projects initially envisioned at roughly $50 million are now appearing closer to $400 million-$700 million, because larger loads require new pipelines reaching further into ONEOK’s system. Awards could strengthen the post-2027 growth backlog, although they would also extend the capital-spending cycle.
This segment produced $492 million of first-quarter adjusted EBITDA, compared with $557 million in Q2 2025.
Second-quarter conditions should benefit from:
ONEOK also entered the year with significant butane-blending hedges and subsequently added fall hedges at higher prices. Management has emphasized that increasing gasoline throughput and completed synergy projects—not regulatory waivers—are the more important drivers of blending volumes.
Potential offsets include losses at Powder Springs, lower crude volumes tied to low-margin short-haul movements and the timing of maintenance or operational expenses.
Key questions:
The Denver project adds 35,000 barrels per day of capacity and is one of the most immediate project-execution checkpoints in the report.
Gathering and Processing was the only segment with lower year-over-year EBITDA in the first quarter:
Management expected Rocky Mountain volumes to strengthen in the second and third quarters as winter-related impacts normalized. The relocated 150 MMcf/d Shadowfax plant in the Midland Basin should also continue ramping.
The key is whether physical growth begins to outweigh the drag from the company’s lower-price hedge book. ONEOK entered 2026 approximately 75% hedged, but incremental volumes can receive current market economics.
Key questions:
A sequential recovery toward last year’s Q2 segment EBITDA of $540 million would be constructive, although the realized-price environment may make that a demanding comparison.
ONEOK raised its 2026 outlook following the first quarter to:
Management attributed the increase to stronger business performance, better volume expectations and more favorable market opportunities. It did not incorporate all potential upside from a stronger forward commodity environment.
Bullish outcome
Neutral outcome
Bearish outcome
A guidance reaffirmation should not automatically be treated as disappointing. The current range is $500 million wide, and management may prefer to wait for greater visibility into second-half volumes and commodity markets. However, investors will want to know whether performance is trending toward the midpoint, upper half or lower half.
ONEOK is in the capital-intensive portion of its investment cycle. First-quarter figures illustrate the tension:
Working-capital movements affected reported operating cash flow, but the broader point remains: current investment and dividend requirements exceed internally generated cash after capital spending, resulting in reliance on debt and other financing.
At March 31, ONEOK had approximately:
Management expects the majority of its larger current projects to be completed by mid-2027, after which free cash flow should improve materially. Higher EBITDA could accelerate progress toward leverage targets, but investors should monitor whether capital spending remains within the stated range.
| Project | Expected timing |
|---|---|
| Greater Denver refined-products expansion | Mid-2026 |
| Delaware Basin processing expansions, 110 MMcf/d | Q3 2026 |
| Medford fractionator Phase 1, 100 MBbl/d | Q4 2026 |
| Cutter plant in Powder River Basin, 60 MMcf/d | Q4 2026 |
| Medford Phase 2, 110 MBbl/d | Q1 2027 |
| Bighorn Permian processing plant, 300 MMcf/d | Mid-2027 |
| Texas City LPG terminal and MBTC pipeline | Early 2028 |
| Eiger Express natural-gas pipeline | Mid-2028 |
Any cost inflation or timing slippage would be relevant because ONEOK is simultaneously financing several large projects and targeting lower leverage.
OKE closed at $90.83 on July 31, roughly 1% above its April 28 pre-first-quarter-report close. Over the same period, the Alerian MLP ETF and S&P 500 each gained approximately 5%.
That relative underperformance suggests expectations are not especially stretched going into the release. At the July 31 price, the $4.28 annualized dividend represents a yield of approximately 4.7%.
The stock therefore appears more likely to respond to changes in the 2026-2027 EBITDA and free-cash-flow trajectory than to a modest EPS beat or miss driven by commodity revenue, impairment charges or other accounting items.
The setup is constructive but not risk-free. ONEOK has strong physical volume trends, an integrated asset base and a visible project pipeline. Its shares have also lagged both the broader market and midstream benchmark since the last report, limiting the degree of apparent earnings optimism in the price.
The report will be strongest if it shows that:
The most important number may not be reported EPS. It will be the combination of adjusted EBITDA, segment volumes, guidance positioning and the credibility of the second-half ramp.