Timing correction: ONEOK is scheduled to release 2Q26 earnings after the market close today, Monday, August 3, 2026. The earnings call is tomorrow, Tuesday, August 4, at 11:00 a.m. ET.
ONEOK enters 2Q with momentum after raising its 2026 outlook following 1Q results. The central question is not simply whether it beats quarterly estimates, but whether the company can demonstrate that the raised full-year outlook remains conservative amid improving volumes, continued commercial optimization, and a favorable backdrop for its integrated natural-gas, NGL, refined-products, and crude platforms.
Management characterized 1Q as its lowest adjusted-EBITDA quarter of 2026. That makes 2Q an important proof point for the expected earnings ramp, particularly because some 1Q upside was tied to optimization opportunities that may not recur at the same level.
My read: the fundamental setup is constructive, but the bar is meaningfully higher after the April guidance increase. Investors should focus most closely on the durability and composition of EBITDA—not merely the headline EPS result.
| Metric | 1Q26 actual | 2Q25 actual | What matters in 2Q26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net income attributable to ONEOK | $774M | $841M | GAAP earnings can be affected by hedging, impairment items, taxes, and interest expense. |
| Diluted EPS | $1.23 | $1.34 | Look through one-time items; 1Q included a $0.07/share after-tax noncash JV impairment. |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $2.00B | $1.98B | Most important headline measure and the key test of the 2026 guide. |
| 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance | $8.0B–$8.5B | — | Raised in April; midpoint is $8.25B. |
| 2026 capex guidance | $2.7B–$3.2B | — | Project timing, spend discipline, and return profile are critical. |
At the $8.25 billion EBITDA midpoint, ONEOK needs roughly $6.25 billion across 2Q–4Q, or about $2.08 billion per quarter on average, after delivering $2.00 billion in 1Q. That is achievable if volume momentum and optimization persist, but it leaves less room for a material slowdown in producer activity, market spreads, or project execution.
ONEOK reported broad 1Q throughput growth:
The key positive is that the company’s growth was not confined to a single basin or segment. In particular, the Gulf Coast/Permian NGL system, Mid-Continent gathering footprint, and refined-products system all showed healthy activity.
For 2Q, investors should expect management to address whether higher completion activity, improved operating conditions after winter disruptions, and continued Permian growth translated into a further step-up in physical volumes.
The Natural Gas Pipelines segment delivered $339 million of 1Q adjusted EBITDA, up from $212 million in the prior-year quarter. The increase reflected:
Management said Waha-to-Katy spreads were expected to remain supportive through 2Q and into 3Q, before incremental egress capacity normalizes the market later in the year. That makes this segment a likely source of near-term strength.
However, investors should separate repeatable firm-transportation earnings from spread-driven optimization. A strong 2Q result is helpful, but the quality of the result matters: earnings tied to durable contracted demand deserve a higher valuation than short-lived dislocation benefits.
The Refined Products and Crude segment posted $492 million of 1Q adjusted EBITDA, with refined-products volumes up sharply year over year. Higher transportation and storage earnings, crude-marketing activity, and strong gasoline/diesel demand were key contributors.
For 2Q, the relevant swing factors are:
Management has emphasized that higher system gasoline volumes and completed integration/synergy projects are more important to blending economics than temporary regulatory waivers. That is favorable: it suggests the opportunity is increasingly tied to the scale and connectivity of the platform rather than a single trading window.
Natural Gas Gathering and Processing EBITDA declined to $467 million in 1Q, from $491 million a year earlier, despite natural-gas processing volumes rising 5%. Lower realized commodity prices, net of hedging, were the main offset.
The setup into 2Q appears better:
This segment is the cleanest test of whether ONEOK’s underlying producer-activity assumptions are becoming more favorable. Stronger throughput with stable operating costs would be a constructive signal for the balance of 2026 and into 2027.
1Q benefited from unusually favorable optimization conditions, notably Waha-to-Katy differentials and other market opportunities. ONEOK explicitly expects those differentials to normalize when new pipeline egress arrives in the second half.
A healthy 2Q can still include strong optimization, but investors should be cautious about annualizing 1Q’s segment mix without confirmation that volumes and contracted earnings—not just spreads—are driving the upside.
ONEOK is largely fee-based, but it retains exposure through gathering-and-processing economics, hedging, blending, inventory positions, and marketing. In 1Q, G&P realized prices were pressured because the company entered the year substantially hedged.
Higher commodity prices can help future unhedged volumes and may eventually stimulate producer activity, but they do not necessarily flow through immediately to reported earnings. Commentary on hedge positioning, realized prices, and incremental unhedged exposure will be important.
ONEOK spent $864 million on capex in 1Q, versus $934 million of operating cash flow, while also paying $674 million of dividends. Its growth program is strategically compelling, but near-term free-cash-flow conversion is constrained by elevated investment.
At March 31, the company had roughly $32.0 billion of long-term debt including current maturities, plus short-term borrowings. In April, it redeemed the remaining $491 million of notes maturing in July and entered into a $1.2 billion term loan, improving flexibility but not changing the importance of disciplined capital allocation.
The bull case relies on the current capex wave converting into a meaningful free-cash-flow inflection by mid-2027. Any capex slippage, cost escalation, or delay in project start-ups would weaken that narrative.
ONEOK’s organic growth program is becoming increasingly important to the 2027 earnings trajectory. Investors should listen for timing and cost updates on:
| Project | Expected timing / relevance |
|---|---|
| Denver-area refined-products expansion | Targeted for mid-2026; adds 35,000 bbl/d of capacity. |
| Delaware Basin processing expansions | Targeted for 3Q26; adds 110 MMcf/d. |
| Medford NGL fractionator, Phase 1 | Targeted for 4Q26; adds 100,000 bbl/d of Mid-Continent fractionation capacity. |
| Cutter plant, Powder River Basin | Targeted for 4Q26; adds 60 MMcf/d of processing capacity. |
| Bighorn processing plant, Delaware Basin | Targeted for mid-2027; adds 300 MMcf/d. |
| LPG export dock | Commercialization progress could create an important longer-term export-growth leg. |
The best possible update would be: projects on time and on budget, commercial utilization developing as expected, and no need to raise the $2.7 billion–$3.2 billion capex range.
ONEOK raised 2026 guidance in April to:
A guidance reaffirmation would be acceptable if 2Q supports the expected second-half ramp. The report will be more compelling if management can point to:
A further increase would likely require a combination of stronger-than-expected volumes, sustained optimization or blending margins, and enough visibility that management is comfortable embedding those gains in the back-half outlook. Given that Waha-to-Katy benefits are expected to normalize later this year, a raise based principally on market dislocations would be less valuable than one supported by physical throughput and project-driven earnings.
ONEOK’s 2Q report should be judged as a quality-of-earnings and outlook-validation event. The company already established a strong starting point in 1Q, raised guidance, and described a second-half ramp driven by higher volumes, completed projects, and favorable commercial conditions.
The bullish outcome is a quarter that shows:
The main risk is that investors conclude that the 1Q upside was overly dependent on temporary optimization, while capex and leverage remain elevated. In that scenario, even a headline beat may not be enough.
Overall stance going into the release: constructive fundamentals, but a higher bar. The most valuable evidence will be confirmation that ONEOK’s earnings progression is increasingly volume- and project-led rather than market-dislocation-led.
Sources reviewed: ONEOK’s 1Q26 earnings release and conference-call transcript; ONEOK’s July 9, 2026 release scheduling the 2Q26 earnings announcement and conference call; ONEOK’s 2Q25 earnings release.