ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into OKE’s Q2 2026 print is constructive — consensus sits below the raised guidance midpoint, management guided explicitly for Q2 to be materially stronger than Q1, and peer data from EPD and KMI confirm the Permian volume and NGL fractionation tailwinds that drove the Q1 guidance raise are intact. The biggest swing factor is whether Waha-to-Katy spread normalization arrived earlier than expected as new Permian egress came online in late June.

ONEOK enters Q2 2026 earnings with a low-to-moderate bar relative to the raised guidance midpoint of $8.25B adjusted EBITDA for the full year. Management explicitly stated on the Q1 call that Q1 would be the lowest EBITDA quarter of the year, implying a sequential step-up in Q2 and beyond — a signal the Street has only partially priced in, with current Q2 consensus of ~$2.09B sitting modestly below the implied quarterly run-rate of the full-year guide. Guidance tone has shifted decisively more constructive since last earnings: management raised the 2026 EBITDA midpoint by ~$250M, cited a “more constructive market environment” developing late in Q1, and flagged that Waha-to-Katy differentials would remain wide through Q2 before normalizing in H2 as new Permian egress came online. Estimate revisions have been modestly positive since the Q1 print, with the Q2 EPS consensus recovering from a trough of ~$1.40 in early 2026 to ~$1.45 currently, though still below the $1.57 Q4 2025 actual — suggesting the Street has not fully extrapolated the guidance raise into quarterly estimates. The stock has returned approximately +1.2% since the April 28 earnings date (vs. AMLP +5.2% and S&P 500 +4.97%), underperforming the midstream sector despite the guidance raise, which implies the market is not yet pricing in a beat and leaves room for positive re-rating on a clean print. The key wildcard is the Waha-to-Katy spread trajectory: KMI’s GCX expansion came online June 23 adding ~570 MMcf/d of Permian egress, and EPD noted that “strong cash differentials have largely normalized” by quarter-end — if OKE’s Natural Gas Pipelines segment saw spread compression earlier than guided, Q2 EBITDA could disappoint even as volumes beat.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus for Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA (~$2.09B) sits modestly below the implied quarterly run-rate of the raised full-year guide ($8.25B midpoint), making the bar achievable. Adjusted EBITDA is the primary swing factor; NGL fractionation volumes and Waha-to-Katy spread dynamics are the key sub-drivers to watch.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Adjusted EBITDA, EPS, NGL Fractionation Volume, Natural Gas Pipeline Volume, Permian G&P Gathering Volume, Capital Expenditures all sourced from Visible Alpha.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters — Top 2 KPIs: Adjusted EBITDA & Diluted EPS)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Pattern: OKE has a mixed beat/miss history — EBITDA beats tend to be driven by optimization and marketing upside (Waha spreads, NGL marketing), while EPS misses often reflect non-cash charges or below-the-line items. The Q4 2024 EBITDA beat (+9.1%) was the standout; Q1 2025 was the worst miss, reflecting integration disruption. The trend since Q3 2025 has been tighter, with beats on EBITDA and EPS more consistent.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management raised 2026 EBITDA guidance by ~$250M at the midpoint following Q1 results (effective April 28, 2026), citing stronger volumes and a more constructive market environment. No further revisions have been disclosed since then; the current consensus of ~$8.36B FY EBITDA sits modestly above the raised guidance midpoint of $8.25B, suggesting the Street has already priced in some upside.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have recovered modestly since the Q1 2026 print, with Q2 2026 EBITDA consensus up ~−1.1% from the post-earnings baseline (reflecting some normalization of Waha spread expectations) while FY 2026 EBITDA consensus has risen ~+0.4% as the guidance raise was absorbed. Estimates are broadly tracking guidance, with consensus sitting slightly above the raised midpoint — a modest cushion rather than a stretched bar.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Note: The modest -0.6% drift lower in Q2 EBITDA consensus since the post-earnings baseline likely reflects the market pricing in some Waha spread normalization (KMI’s GCX expansion came online June 23). The +4.3% upward revision to NGL fractionation volume consensus is a positive signal, consistent with EPD’s record fractionation volumes in Q2 2026.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: OKE has underperformed both the midstream sector (AMLP) and the S&P 500 since the Q1 2026 earnings date, returning only +1.2% vs. AMLP +5.2% and SPY +5.0%, despite the guidance raise. The underperformance is primarily multiple-driven — the 6M EV/EBITDA multiple expanded +8.2% but the stock’s 6M return of +15.6% was driven by both earnings growth and multiple re-rating, suggesting the market has been selectively rewarding midstream peers with cleaner Permian exposure while OKE’s integration complexity has kept a lid on its re-rating.

The chart below shows OKE vs. AMLP (Alerian MLP ETF — midstream/MLP sector proxy) vs. S&P 500 (SPY), indexed to 100 at the April 28, 2026 Q1 earnings date. Key events are marked.

OKE vs. AMLP (Midstream/MLP Sector ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at April 28, 2026 (Q1 2026 Earnings Date). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Performance Summary (April 28 – July 31, 2026):

Valuation Context: OKE currently trades at approximately 10.5x NTM EV/EBITDA (vs. 9.95x one year ago, +5.4% multiple expansion over 12 months). The 6-month return of +15.6% was driven by both earnings growth and multiple expansion (+8.2% on EV/EBITDA). The stock’s underperformance vs. AMLP since the Q1 print suggests the market is waiting for cleaner evidence of synergy realization and Permian volume ramp before awarding a higher multiple. Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance).

6. Peer Commentary & Current-Quarter Read-Throughs (Last 60 Days)

Key Takeaway: Peer disclosures from EPD and KMI — both reporting Q2 2026 results in the last week of July — provide the most direct read-through for OKE’s Q2 2026 print. Both peers confirm strong Permian volume growth, record NGL fractionation, and robust LNG/power demand as tailwinds for OKE’s core segments. The key nuance: EPD explicitly noted that Waha cash differentials “largely normalized” by quarter-end, which is a direct read-through risk for OKE’s Natural Gas Pipelines segment, which benefited from $70M of Waha-to-Katy spread income in Q1 2026.

Methodology Note: Only disclosures from the last 60 days (June 3 – August 2, 2026) that evidence conditions in OKE’s April–June 2026 reporting quarter are included below. Prior-quarter earnings commentary (e.g., peers discussing their own Q1 2025 results) and forward-only outlooks with no current-quarter read-through are excluded. Effective dates of corporate actions are used; disclosure dates are separately identified where relevant.

EPD (Enterprise Products Partners) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported July 29–30, 2026)

Highest read-through relevance for OKE’s NGL fractionation, Permian volumes, and export demand.

• Permian G&P Volumes — Direct Positive Read-Through: EPD reported a 14% year-over-year increase in Permian Basin natural gas processing inlet volumes to 4.3 Bcf/d in Q2 2026, with Delaware Basin fee-based volumes up 288 MMcf/d and Midland Basin volumes up 218 MMcf/d. This confirms robust producer activity in the Permian during April–June 2026, directly supporting OKE’s Permian G&P gathering volume consensus of ~1,937 MMcf/d (+11% YoY). EPD’s Bahia and Chinook NGL pipeline systems were operating at 86% of capacity, signaling strong NGL supply from the basin.
• NGL Fractionation — Direct Positive Read-Through: EPD reported record NGL fractionation gross operating margin of $276M in Q2 2026 (vs. $224M in Q2 2025), with total fractionation volumes of 1.9 MMbpd (vs. 1.7 MMbpd in Q2 2025). The weighted-average NGL price at Mont Belvieu rose to $0.68/gallon (vs. $0.58/gallon in Q2 2025). This is a direct positive read-through for OKE’s NGL fractionation segment, where consensus expects ~935 Mbpd of fractionation volume in Q2 2026.
• NGL Export Demand — Direct Positive Read-Through (with Nuance): EPD handled record marine terminal volumes in Q2 2026, with ethane export volumes up 143 Mbpd and propane export volumes up 141 Mbpd, driven by “strong international demand for U.S. energy” in April and May. However, EPD explicitly noted that “volumes at our marine terminals have returned to normal levels in June and July after the initial rush to backfill volumes affected by hostilities in the Middle East in April and May.” This suggests the export surge was front-loaded in Q2, with June volumes already normalizing — a nuance relevant to OKE’s NGL marketing and optimization revenues.
• Waha Spread Dynamics — Key Risk Read-Through: EPD noted that “the pipelines have come up a little bit faster than the market expected, so we’ve had some pretty strong Waha prices” during Q2 2026, and that EPD “benefited in processing margins and spread value” from these conditions. Critically, EPD also stated that “those strong cash differentials have largely normalized” by the time of the July 30 earnings call, and flagged that “Waha could tighten again before 2027 as some of that shut-in gas returns.” This is the most important risk read-through for OKE: if Waha-to-Katy spreads normalized earlier in Q2 than OKE guided (management expected them to remain wide “through Q2 into Q3”), the Natural Gas Pipelines segment could disappoint.
• LNG Pipeline Demand — Positive Read-Through: EPD’s Louisiana intrastate pipeline serving LNG markets at Gillis was running at 800–1,000 MMcf/d and described as “sold out,” with Haynesville production “slowly creeping up” toward 16 Bcf. This confirms strong LNG-driven gas demand during Q2 2026, a positive for OKE’s Jefferson Island Storage and Louisiana pipeline connectivity.
• Capital Projects — Strategic Signal (Not Direct Q2 Read-Through): EPD announced plans for two new 300 MMcf/d Permian gas processing plants (Plant 11 in Midland, Plant 13 in Delaware) and a new 150 Mbpd fractionator (Frac 15 at Mont Belvieu). These are forward-looking investment signals confirming continued Permian growth, but do not directly evidence Q2 2026 operating conditions for OKE.

KMI (Kinder Morgan) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported July 22, 2026)

Strong read-through for OKE’s Natural Gas Pipelines segment, Permian egress, and LNG/data center demand.

• Natural Gas Pipeline Volumes — Direct Positive Read-Through: KMI reported natural gas transport volumes up 7% YoY in Q2 2026 (47,886 BBtu/d vs. 44,818 BBtu/d in Q2 2025), driven by LNG feed gas deliveries on Tennessee Gas Pipeline, increased Texas intrastate demand, higher power generation demand on El Paso Natural Gas Pipeline, and greater exports to Mexico. KMI described “higher volumes and favorable margins across the Texas intrastate network” — a direct positive read-through for OKE’s Natural Gas Pipelines segment, which operates significant Texas intrastate assets.
• Permian Egress — Direct Positive Read-Through: KMI placed its Gulf Coast Express (GCX) expansion into service on June 23, 2026 (effective date), adding ~570 MMcf/d of Permian-to-South Texas capacity and bringing total GCX capacity to ~2.59 Bcf/d. KMI noted the expansion “was waiting on capacity — as soon as we got it up, it pretty much was full.” This is a direct read-through for OKE’s Permian gathering volumes: new egress capacity relieves Waha-driven curtailments and supports continued production growth, but also begins the process of Waha spread normalization that OKE guided would occur in H2 2026.
• Natural Gas Gathering Volumes — Direct Positive Read-Through: KMI reported natural gas gathering volumes up 26% YoY in Q2 2026 (4,637 BBtu/d vs. 3,692 BBtu/d), with the largest growth from the KinderHawk system in the Haynesville (up 54%). Haynesville volumes averaged 1.9 Bcf/d for the quarter and reached over 2 Bcf/d in June. This confirms strong basin-wide gathering activity during OKE’s Q2 reporting period.
• LNG and Power/Data Center Demand — Direct Positive Read-Through: KMI reported that “the natural gas growth story remains very positive as demand for LNG export volumes and gas for electric generation continues to grow.” KMI is developing projects to serve “more than 10 Bcf/d of natural gas demand in the power generation sector and approximately 3 Bcf/d in the LNG sector.” KMI also cited growing gas demand from AI infrastructure in the Southeast (Georgia Power’s 75+ GW of potential power demand through mid-2030s). This confirms the demand environment OKE management described as its “gold” (LNG) and “silver” (AI/data centers) demand drivers is materializing in real volumes during Q2 2026.
• NGL Volumes — Positive Read-Through: KMI’s NGL transport volumes in its Natural Gas Pipelines segment rose 33% YoY to 52 Mbpd in Q2 2026 (vs. 39 Mbpd in Q2 2025), partly reflecting the conversion of the Double H Pipeline from crude to NGL service (effective April 29, 2026). KMI’s liquids terminals business benefited from “higher rates and ancillary fees at Houston Ship Channel hub facilities as well as favorable commodity pricing.” This is a positive read-through for OKE’s NGL transportation and marketing revenues.
• Overall Financial Performance — Positive Sector Read-Through: KMI reported adjusted EBITDA up 12% YoY and adjusted EPS up 32% YoY in Q2 2026, with “broad-based growth with every business segment contributing positively.” KMI beat consensus EPS of $0.32 with a reported $0.37 (+15.6% beat). This broad-based midstream outperformance is a positive sector read-through for OKE.

WMB (Williams Companies) — Power Innovation JV Announcement (July 13, 2026)

Read-through for OKE’s AI/data center gas demand opportunity (silver-ranked driver).

• Power/Data Center Demand — Positive Strategic Read-Through: On July 13, 2026 (disclosure date), Williams announced a $5.34 billion investment from Blackstone, Apollo, and KKR for a 49% noncontrolling stake in five Power Innovation projects totaling 2.6+ GW of announced capacity and a 6+ GW backlog. Blackstone’s Robert Horn stated that “Williams is a leader in meeting the country’s rapidly growing power demands, including providing critical hard assets to serve the AI infrastructure buildout.” This confirms that the AI/data center gas demand theme OKE management highlighted on the Q1 call (projects growing from ~100 MMcf/d to requests of 600 MMcf/d) is a real and accelerating market dynamic during Q2 2026, not just a forward aspiration.
• Exclusion Note: WMB’s specific 2026 financial guidance (Adjusted EBITDA, growth capex, leverage ratio) and the detailed financial structure of the Blackstone investment are excluded as they are specific to WMB’s corporate finance and do not evidence OKE’s Q2 2026 operating conditions.

WES (Western Midstream Partners) — Brazos Delaware II Acquisition Close (June 11, 2026)

Read-through for Delaware Basin activity levels during OKE’s Q2 2026 reporting period.

• Delaware Basin Activity — Positive Read-Through: On June 11, 2026 (effective date; disclosed June 12, 2026), Western Midstream closed its $1.6 billion acquisition of Brazos Delaware II, LLC, expanding its gathering and processing footprint in the Delaware Basin. The closing of this transaction during OKE’s Q2 reporting period confirms that the Delaware Basin — where OKE operates EnLink-acquired gathering and processing assets — was experiencing robust and growing production activity sufficient to attract $1.6B of new midstream investment. This is a positive read-through for OKE’s Permian/Delaware Basin G&P volumes.

Peer Read-Through Summary Matrix

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption, which has driven Brent crude to $84–$100/barrel range during Q2 2026 and created a structural tailwind for US LNG and NGL export demand — directly supporting OKE’s gold-ranked demand driver. The partial de-escalation announced August 2 (Trump called off planned strikes) introduces near-term uncertainty about whether the geopolitical premium sustains into Q3.

• April 28, 2026 (Effective Date) | OKE Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Raise: ONEOK reported Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $1,997M (+13% YoY) and raised full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance to $8.0B–$8.5B ($8.25B midpoint), up from the prior range. Management cited stronger volumes and a “more constructive market environment” developing late in Q1. Stock rose on the day. Disclosed: April 28, 2026 (8-K filing).
• April 2026 (Effective Date) | Debt Redemption & Term Loan: OKE redeemed the remaining $491M of 4.85% senior notes due July 2026 and entered into a $1.2B term loan agreement, enhancing balance sheet flexibility. These actions reduce near-term refinancing risk and support the leverage reduction trajectory toward the 3.5x target. Disclosed: April 28, 2026 (Q1 earnings release).
• April 2026 (Effective Date) | Quarterly Dividend Declaration: OKE declared a quarterly dividend of $1.07/share ($4.28 annualized), consistent with the 3–4% annual growth target. Disclosed: April 2026.
• February 28, 2026 (Effective Date) | US-Iran War Begins — Ongoing Geopolitical Tailwind: US and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026. The resulting Strait of Hormuz disruption (vessel traffic down 66% in the week through July 20) has driven Brent crude to $84–$100/barrel range and created a structural demand pull for US LNG and NGL exports. OKE management explicitly cited Middle East conflict as a structural tailwind for US LNG capacity additions on the Q1 call. Brent crude averaged ~$96.68/barrel in Q2 2026 (per ExxonMobil Q2 disclosure). This is OKE’s most significant macro tailwind for Q2 2026 and potentially Q3 2026.
• August 2, 2026 | US-Iran De-escalation Signal — Near-Term Wildcard: President Trump announced he called off a planned strike on Iran after receiving a request from Iran, with “perimeters of a deal” agreed to including reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell 4.4–4.5% on the news (Brent to $84.10, WTI to $80.89). If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the geopolitical premium in oil prices and US LNG/NGL export demand could partially unwind, creating a headwind for OKE’s NGL marketing and optimization revenues in Q3 2026. However, OKE management has argued the structural shift toward US LNG is durable regardless of near-term geopolitical outcomes.
• July 13, 2026 | Williams Companies Power Innovation JV — $5.34B Investment: Williams announced a $5.34B investment from Blackstone, Apollo, and KKR for five Power Innovation projects totaling 2.6+ GW. This validates the AI/data center gas demand theme OKE management highlighted as a “silver” demand driver, with projects in Oklahoma and Texas — OKE’s core footprint. Implication: OKE’s data center pipeline discussions (projects growing to 600 MMcf/d requests) are likely to be a key topic on the Q2 call.
• June 23, 2026 (Effective Date) | KMI Gulf Coast Express Expansion Online: KMI placed the GCX expansion into service, adding ~570 MMcf/d of Permian-to-South Texas natural gas takeaway capacity. This is a direct read-through for OKE: new egress relieves Waha-driven curtailments (positive for Permian gathering volumes) but also begins the normalization of Waha-to-Katy spreads that OKE guided would occur in H2 2026. Disclosed: KMI Q2 2026 earnings release, July 22, 2026.
• June 11, 2026 (Effective Date) | WES Closes Brazos Delaware II Acquisition ($1.6B): Western Midstream closed its acquisition of Brazos Delaware II, expanding its Delaware Basin G&P footprint. Confirms robust Delaware Basin activity during OKE’s Q2 reporting period. Disclosed: June 12, 2026 (8-K filing).
• July 22, 2026 | KMI Q2 2026 Earnings Beat: KMI reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.37 vs. consensus $0.32 (+15.6% beat), with adjusted EBITDA +12% YoY. Broad-based beat across all segments. Positive sector read-through for OKE.
• July 29–30, 2026 | EPD Q2 2026 Earnings — Record Volumes: EPD reported record NGL pipeline volumes (4.9 MMbpd, +8% YoY), record marine terminal volumes (1.2 MMbpd, +33% YoY), and record NGL fractionation margin ($276M). Permian inlet volumes +14% YoY. Strong positive read-through for OKE’s NGL and Permian segments.
• July 27, 2026 | Baker Hughes Q2 2026 Earnings — LNG Order Surge: BKR reported IET business orders of $7.1B (vs. Street estimate of $3.6B), including a major order from Venture Global for 12 LNG trains for the CP2 expansion. BKR raised full-year IET order guidance. This confirms accelerating LNG infrastructure investment, a structural tailwind for OKE’s LNG-driven gas demand thesis.
• July 9, 2026 | OKE Schedules Q2 2026 Earnings Call: ONEOK announced its Q2 2026 conference call for August 4, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. Quiet period began in early July when books closed.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market insider purchases or sales were identified for OKE in the period from April 28, 2026 through August 2, 2026 based on available SEC Form 4 data. The absence of insider selling ahead of earnings is a neutral-to-slightly-positive signal; the absence of open-market buying is not unusual for a company in a quiet period. No 10b5-1 plan initiations were identified in the window.

Note: The search covered SEC Form 4 open-market transactions (codes P/S) and Form 144 filings for OKE insiders from April 28, 2026 through August 2, 2026. No transactions were identified. This is consistent with OKE’s quiet period, which management confirmed begins “when we close our books in early July.” The lack of insider selling is a neutral-to-positive signal heading into the print.

Appendix: Data Sources & Citations

• Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data — All KPI consensus estimates and actuals (Adjusted EBITDA, EPS, NGL Fractionation Volume, Natural Gas Pipeline Volume, Permian G&P Gathering Volume, Capital Expenditures). Sources: https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/OKE_US/NMV/SG (EBITDA), https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/OKE_US/NMV/IS (EPS), https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/OKE_US/NMV/NGLNew (NGL Fractionation), https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/OKE_US/NMV/NGPNew (Natural Gas Pipeline Volume), https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/OKE_US/NMV/NGGP (Permian G&P), https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/OKE_US/NMV/CF (CapEx).
• Stock Price Data — OKE, AMLP, SPY daily closing prices from April 28 – July 31, 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance.
• OKE Q1 2026 Earnings Release & Transcript — April 28–29, 2026. Source: SEC EDGAR / Implied Financial Documents Database.
• EPD Q2 2026 Earnings Release & Transcript — July 29–30, 2026. Source: SEC EDGAR / Implied Financial Documents Database.
• KMI Q2 2026 Earnings Release & Transcript — July 22, 2026. Source: SEC EDGAR / Implied Financial Documents Database.
• WMB Power Innovation JV Press Release — July 13, 2026. Source: SEC EDGAR 8-K / Implied Financial Documents Database.
• WES Brazos Delaware II Acquisition Close — June 11–12, 2026. Source: SEC EDGAR 8-K / Implied Financial Documents Database.
• News Digest / Market News — US-Iran conflict, oil price movements, BKR earnings, ExxonMobil/Chevron Q2 results. Source: Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, WSJ via Implied News Digest.
• OKE Earnings Call Schedule — August 4, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. Source: OKE Press Release, July 9, 2026.