ON Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ON Report Revenue (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$1.61B vs. cons ~$1.59B MEDIUM
ON Report Non-GAAP EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$0.73 vs. cons ~$0.68 MEDIUM
ON Report Non-GAAP Gross Margin (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~39.2% vs. cons ~39.0% MEDIUM
ON Guide Q3'26 Revenue guide BETTER guide ~$1.68B vs. cons ~$1.65B (Q3'26) MEDIUM
ON Guide Q3'26 Non-GAAP EPS guide UNCHANGED guide ~$0.78 vs. cons ~$0.77 (Q3'26) LOW
ON Guide Q3'26 Non-GAAP Gross Margin guide UNCHANGED guide ~40% vs. cons ~40% (Q3'26) MEDIUM
ON Guide 2026 AI data center revenue framing BETTER guide ~2.0-2.2x vs. cons ~2.0x YoY (FY26, off ~$250M base) MEDIUM
ON Guide Synaptics deal accretion/synergies UNCHANGED guide ~$200M synergies, accretive in ~18mo vs. cons ~$200M (close mid-2027) LOW
ON Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +4.0% MEDIUM
ON Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.5% (FADE) Stock is deeply derisked (~$81.63 vs. $133 June peak, off ~24% on Synaptics + another leg lower into the print), so a modest beat and above-seasonal Q3 guide likely triggers a relief pop on day 1. But the rally fades over the week: the ~$30-40M non-core exits and 2H pricing-lag on margins cap out-period upside, the all-stock Synaptics dilution/distraction overhang persists, the multiple is still rich, and split sell-side targets ($60s-$110) mean estimate revisions net roughly flat-to-down even after a beat. LOW