I'll research ON (onsemi) before writing the preview. Let me gather recent filings, transcripts, and news.I have strong Q1 2026 detail. Now let me pull the Q2 guidance context, recent stock performance, and consensus expectations.Let me get consensus estimates and understand the recent stock volatility.The Synaptics deal is clearly the dominant story. Let me get consensus estimates and the year-ago Q2 numbers for comparison.Let me try the consensus search once more and compute key stock stats.I have enough to compute a few clean stats, then write the preview.# onsemi (ON) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
onsemi heads into Q2 as a "recovery + AI story" that the market fell in love with in the first half of 2026 — and then abruptly re-rated after management dropped a surprise $7B acquisition. The print itself is likely to be fine (guidance was above-seasonal); the real event is what management says about the Synaptics deal, the AI data center ramp, and the gross-margin trajectory. Expect an outsized stock reaction either way.
The stock has been on a rollercoaster and enters the print with fragile sentiment:
| Reference point | Level | vs. current (~$81.63) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 cycle low (Nov '25) | ~$44.90 | +82% |
| Q1 print (5/4/26) | $102.04 | −20% |
| 2026 peak (6/3/26) | $133.93 | −39% |
| Pre-Synaptics (6/25/26) | $118.74 | −31% |
| Year-end 2025 | $54.15 | +51% |
The takeaway: ON roughly tripled off the 2025 low and was up ~66% YTD before the Synaptics announcement, then gave back a huge chunk in one of its worst weeks in years. It's still up meaningfully on the year, but the "easy money" recovery trade has been challenged. With a rich multiple and heavy hedge-fund involvement, this is a high-beta print — any execution wobble gets punished.
On the Q1 call (May 4), CFO Thad Trent guided Q2 to: - Revenue: $1.535B–$1.635B (midpoint ~$1.585B, ~+8% YoY vs. $1.469B, ~+5% sequential) - Includes another $30–40M of planned non-core exits; ex-exits, up ~7% at midpoint and "above seasonal" - Non-GAAP gross margin: 38%–40% (vs. 38.5% in Q1) - Non-GAAP opex: $287M–$302M - Non-GAAP EPS: $0.65–$0.77 (midpoint $0.71, vs. $0.53 a year ago) - Utilization "flat to up slightly" from 77%; capex $25–35M
Street consensus sits around $1.59B revenue and ~$0.66–0.71 EPS, i.e. roughly in line with the guide midpoint. ON has beaten in three of the last four quarters (Q1 came in at $1.51B / $0.64 vs. a $0.61 consensus). The setup favors a modest beat-and-hold-or-raise, but the reaction hinges on Q3 guidance and the qualitative items below.
End-market guide for Q2: Automotive ~flat QoQ; Industrial up mid-single-digits; "Other" (which houses AI data center) up mid-teens QoQ.
This is the swing factor for the stock. On June 25, onsemi agreed to acquire Synaptics in an all-stock deal (~$7B enterprise value; 1.35 ON shares per SYNA share) to push into "physical AI"/edge AI, connectivity, and human-machine interface. Key facts and the bear/bull tension:
What to listen for: an updated/expanded rationale, any change to accretion math or synergy targets, integration/leadership plans, financing and share-count impact, whether it changes the buyback cadence, and — critically — reassurance that the core AI/power roadmap is not being deprioritized. CEO Hassane El-Khoury has already been on the defensive publicly; the call is his chance to reframe.
This is what drove the 2026 re-rating and remains the most important growth vector: - Q1 AI data center revenue grew >30% sequentially (nearly double the ~high-teens they'd modeled) and doubled YoY; management now expects 2026 AI data center revenue to double vs. 2025 (off a ~$250M base in 2025). - Positioned as the only broad-based U.S. power semiconductor supplier across the full power tree — from grid/high-voltage conversion to the point-of-load at the XPU — engaged with all major hyperscalers and power-supply vendors (e.g., 30+ programs with Flex Power). - Content leverage: management framed ~$9,500 of content in a 120kW rack today scaling to ~$115,000 in an 800V/HVDC rack. - Adjacent "AI halo": energy storage / microgrid business guided to >40% YoY growth in 2026 with share approaching 60%. - Watch the GaN and Vcore roadmap: GaN design funnel >$1.5B with revenue starting 2027; vGaN (NexGen) sampling; Vcore (Aura) multiphase controllers targeting server CPU sockets.
Key question: Do they raise the "double in 2026" framing again? A raise would be a strong offset to Synaptics angst; a mere reiteration may disappoint the more bullish holders.
Bullish scenario: In-line-to-better Q2, a Q3 guide showing 2H acceleration, a raise to the AI data center "double" framing, and a credible, confident defense of Synaptics (clear synergy path, no core distraction). That could re-anchor the recovery + AI thesis after the deal-driven drawdown.
Bearish scenario: Any Q3 guide wobble, softer-than-hoped margin step-up (pricing lag), auto staying "flat/no restock," or muddled Synaptics messaging — against a still-elevated multiple and shaken positioning — likely extends the sell-off.
Net: The numbers probably clear a beatable bar; the narrative — especially reconciling the Synaptics pivot with the AI data center growth story — is what determines the print's outcome. Sell-side is split (targets have ranged from the ~$60s to ~$110), which itself signals how contested the stock is going in.
Watch items in order of importance: (1) Synaptics rationale/integration/dilution, (2) AI data center guidance revision, (3) Q3 revenue + gross-margin guide, (4) auto restock signals, (5) buyback cadence.
Preview based on onsemi's Q1 2026 earnings call and release, the Q2 2025 comparison release, the June 25 Synaptics acquisition disclosures, recent news flow, and public consensus/price data. Figures are non-GAAP unless noted. This is informational research, not investment advice.