ON Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ON Report Total Revenue (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$1.61B vs. cons ~$1.59B MEDIUM
ON Report Non-GAAP Diluted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$0.75 vs. cons ~$0.72 MEDIUM
ON Report AI Data Center ('Other') segment QoQ growth BEAT pred ~+22% QoQ vs. cons/guide ~+15% QoQ (mid-teens) MEDIUM
ON Guide Q3'26 Revenue Guidance BETTER guide ~$1.66B vs. cons ~$1.63B (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
ON Guide Q3'26 Non-GAAP EPS Guidance BETTER guide ~$0.79 vs. cons ~$0.76 (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
ON Guide FY2026 AI Data Center Revenue Growth (reiterated 'double YoY' target) BETTER guide ~+100% YoY vs. cons ~+80% YoY (FY2026) LOW
ON Guide Non-GAAP Gross Margin trajectory (H2'26 commentary) UNCHANGED guide ~39.5%-40.5% vs. cons ~40.0% (Q3/Q4 2026 exit rate) LOW
ON Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +5.0% MEDIUM
ON Return 5-day cumulative residual +7.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Stock is ~35% below pre-Synaptics highs and heavily oversold after the deal-driven crash; a clean beat-and-raise on core power/AI-datacenter momentum plus explicit reassurance that buybacks continue and Synaptics dilution/synergy math is intact should trigger short-covering and gradual re-rating over the week, similar to the Q1 post-earnings melt-up. Risk to follow-through is any fresh deal-related news (litigation, regulatory delay) or a cautious Q3 auto/industrial guide reintroducing skepticism, which could cap gains — hence moderate (not high) confidence and a path more measured than the April/May rally. LOW