ON Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ON Report Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$1.61B vs. cons $1.60B MEDIUM
ON Report Non-GAAP gross margin BEAT pred ~39.6% vs. cons 39.1% MEDIUM
ON Report Non-GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$0.75 vs. cons $0.73 MEDIUM
ON Guide 3Q26 revenue LOWER guide ~$1.68B vs. cons $1.71B (3Q26) MEDIUM
ON Guide 3Q26 non-GAAP gross margin LOWER guide ~40.3% vs. cons 40.7% (3Q26) MEDIUM
ON Guide 3Q26 non-GAAP EPS LOWER guide ~$0.81 vs. cons $0.85 (3Q26) MEDIUM
ON Guide FY26 AI-data-center revenue growth UNCHANGED guide ~$500M vs. cons $500M (FY26) MEDIUM
ON Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -6.5% MEDIUM
ON Return 5-day cumulative residual -9.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A modest 2Q EPS and margin beat is likely outweighed by a 3Q revenue/EPS guide roughly $0.03B and $0.04 below consensus, respectively. The implied second-half recovery and gross-margin step-up would be pushed out, driving FY26/FY27 estimate cuts while the Synaptics overhang limits buyers. MEDIUM