ON Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ON Report Revenue (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$1,610M vs. cons $1,589M (Visible Alpha, Jul 31 2026) MEDIUM
ON Report Non-GAAP Gross Margin (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~39.5% vs. cons ~39.1% implied (Visible Alpha GP/Rev, Jul 31 2026) MEDIUM
ON Report Non-GAAP EPS Diluted Operating (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$0.74 vs. cons $0.715 (Visible Alpha, Jul 31 2026) MEDIUM
ON Guide Revenue (Q3 2026) UNCHANGED guide ~$1,690M midpoint vs. cons ~$1,695M implied (FY cons minus Q1 actual minus Q2 cons, Visible Alpha) MEDIUM
ON Guide Non-GAAP Gross Margin (Q3 2026) UNCHANGED guide sequential expansion ~40.0-41.5% vs. cons ~40.5% implied MEDIUM
ON Guide AI DC Revenue FY 2026 UNCHANGED reiterate 'double YoY' framework; no upgrade given SYNA deal focus vs. cons embedding doubling MEDIUM
ON Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.0% MEDIUM
ON Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.0% (FADE) FADE — initial beat relief fades as SYNA deal overhang reasserts; no estimate revision catalyst for follow-through since Q3 guide is in-line MEDIUM