ORLY Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ORLY Report Comparable store sales (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~7.0% vs. cons ~5.7% HIGH
ORLY Report Diluted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$0.90 vs. cons ~$0.87 MEDIUM
ORLY Report Operating margin (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~20.3% vs. cons ~20.4% MEDIUM
ORLY Guide FY2026 comparable store sales guidance BETTER guide ~4-6% vs. cons ~5.2% (FY2026 raise from 3-5%) MEDIUM
ORLY Guide FY2026 diluted EPS guidance BETTER guide ~$3.05-3.15 vs. cons ~$3.05 (FY2026) LOW
ORLY Guide FY2026 operating margin guidance UNCHANGED guide ~19.4-19.9% vs. cons ~19.7% (FY2026; SG&A/insurance pressure H1) LOW
ORLY Guide NAPA (GPC auto unit) ~$10B bid commentary UNKNOWN guide n/a ~$10B bid vs. cons no formal disclosure (Q2 call Q&A) — likely declines to comment MEDIUM
ORLY Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.5% MEDIUM
ORLY Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.0% (FADE) Clean beat-and-modest-raise drives a positive day-1 pop (stock already rebounded from ~$83 to ~$91 into the print, so some good news priced). But out-period math bites: after +8.1% Q1 and a strong Q2, holding FY comps at only ~4-6% bakes in implied H2 deceleration (H2 needs ~3-4%) as same-SKU inflation laps out in Q3/Q4, so consensus H2 estimates get trimmed even after the beat. Add the unresolved NAPA/capital-allocation overhang capping multiple expansion, and the initial move partially gives back over the week. LOW