Company | PACCAR Inc. | Earnings Date | July 28, 2026 |
Ticker | PCAR US | Prepared | July 27, 2026 |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) | Last Earnings | April 28, 2026 (Q1 2026) |
Key Takeaway: The setup favors a beat — consensus is a manageable bar, Q2 delivery guidance of 37,000–38,000 units was pre-announced, and truck margins are on a confirmed upward trajectory — but the stock has already rallied ~11% since the Q1 print, so the market needs to see margin execution and H2 conviction to sustain the move.
Heading into Q2 2026, PACCAR's bar looks achievable: management guided deliveries of 37,000–38,000 units (up ~13% sequentially from Q1's 33,100) and Truck, Parts & Other gross margins of ~13.5% (up from 13.1% in Q1), both of which were explicitly telegraphed on the April 28 earnings call, leaving little room for surprise on the downside but meaningful upside if pricing or mix outperforms. Management's tone shifted decisively constructive at Q1 — the trough thesis was confirmed, the Section 232 tariff credit mechanism is "fairly well defined," and the production backlog is described as full in Q2 and majority-full in Q3/Q4 — suggesting guidance is grounded rather than aspirational. Estimate revisions have been modestly positive since the Q1 print, with Q2 diluted operating EPS consensus moving from $1.350 to $1.342, essentially flat, implying the Street has not aggressively front-run the delivery ramp. The stock has re-rated from ~$120 to ~$133 since last earnings, with the 1-month move driven almost entirely by multiple expansion rather than estimate upgrades, which raises the bar for a sustained re-rating post-print. The single biggest wildcard is truck gross margin — raw material cost volatility (steel, aluminum, energy) and still-competitive pricing could compress the 13.5% guided figure, while any incremental Section 232 tariff credit recognition (similar to the ~€120M catch-up Traton booked in Q2) could provide upside surprise.
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a low-to-moderate bar — management pre-guided both deliveries and margins at Q1, so the Street's estimates are anchored to disclosed targets. Truck gross margin is the bigger swing factor; a miss there would overshadow any volume beat.
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2025 Actual | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change | Guidance (Q1 Call) | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Diluted Operating EPS ($) | $1.148 | $1.374 | $1.342 | −2.3% | N/A (no explicit EPS guide) | N/A |
Total Revenue ($B) | $6.78B | $7.51B | $7.56B | +0.6% | N/A (no explicit revenue guide) | N/A |
Truck Revenue ($B) | $4.53B | $5.24B | $5.25B | +0.3% | Implied by 37–38k deliveries | ~Inline |
Parts Revenue ($B) | $1.71B | $1.72B | $1.77B | +2.9% | +3% QoQ growth guided | ~Inline |
Truck Gross Margin (%) | ~7.0% | 8.7% | ~8.0% | − ~70 bps | Truck, Parts & Other ~13.5% total | ~Inline |
Truck Deliveries — Total (#) | 33,100 | 39,300 | ~37,785 | −3.8% | 37,000–38,000 | ~Inline (+0.5%) |
NA Class 8 Industry Production (#) | 49,686 | 68,146 | ~63,918 | −6.2% | 230k–270k FY2026 | N/A (FY guide only) |
Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data for all consensus and actuals figures. Q1 2026 actuals and Q2 2026 guidance from PACCAR Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Earnings Call Transcript (April 28, 2026).
Quarter | Reported ($) | Consensus ($) | Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | 1.148 | 1.151 | −0.3% | Inline |
Q4 2025 | 1.057 | 1.062 | −0.5% | Inline |
Q3 2025 | 1.120 | 1.126 | −0.5% | Inline |
Q2 2025 | 1.374 | 1.282 | +7.2% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | 1.460 | 1.562 | −6.5% | Miss |
Q4 2024 | 1.656 | 1.713 | −3.3% | Miss |
Q3 2024 | 1.846 | 1.810 | +2.0% | Beat |
Q2 2024 | N/A — pre-range | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Quarter | Reported (#) | Consensus (#) | Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | 33,100 | 33,337 | −0.7% | Inline |
Q4 2025 | 32,900 | 32,369 | +1.6% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | 31,900 | 31,938 | −0.1% | Inline |
Q2 2025 | 39,300 | 38,092 | +3.2% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | 40,100 | 39,986 | +0.3% | Inline |
Q4 2024 | 43,900 | 42,344 | +3.7% | Beat |
Q3 2024 | 44,900 | 43,429 | +3.4% | Beat |
Pattern: PACCAR has a strong track record of meeting or beating delivery guidance — deliveries beat or matched consensus in 6 of the last 7 reported quarters. EPS has been more volatile, with misses in Q1 and Q4 2025 as the cycle turned down, but the Q2 2025 beat (+7.2%) suggests the company can outperform when volumes are recovering. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Guidance has not been formally revised since the Q1 2026 earnings call — no 8-K, conference, or investor day update has changed the numbers. Management's tone, however, has shifted decisively more constructive: the trough is confirmed, the backlog is full, and the Section 232 tariff credit mechanism is described as "fairly well defined."
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Call, Apr 28) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
Q2 2026 Truck Deliveries | 37,000–38,000 units | — | ~37,785 units | No post-earnings update; consensus inline with guidance midpoint |
Q2 2026 Truck, Parts & Other Gross Margin | ~13.5% | — | ~13.5% (implied by segment mix) | No post-earnings update; consensus tracking guidance |
Q2 2026 Parts Revenue Growth | +3% QoQ | — | $1.77B (+3.5% QoQ) | Consensus slightly above guidance; acceleration expected through year |
FY2026 NA Class 8 Industry Retail Sales | 230,000–270,000 units | — | ~263,220 units | Consensus near midpoint; Volvo maintained 265k, Traton raised NA midpoint to +5% |
FY2026 Parts Revenue Growth | 3%–6% YoY | — | $7.16B (~+3.5% YoY) | Consensus at low end of range; upside if fleet health improves faster |
FY2026 Capex | $725M–$775M | — | N/A — not tracked in VA | No post-earnings update |
FY2026 R&D Expense | $450M–$500M | — | N/A — not tracked in VA | No post-earnings update |
No post-earnings guidance revisions have been issued since the April 28, 2026 Q1 earnings call. The absence of any pre-announcement or 8-K update is itself a mild positive signal — management has not needed to walk back the constructive Q2 outlook it provided. The key tone shift since Q1: management explicitly characterized the Section 232 tariff credit as "fairly well defined" and expects to apply for and receive credits "in the not-distant future," which could represent incremental margin upside not yet in consensus.
Key Takeaway: Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print — Q2 EPS consensus is essentially flat vs. the post-Q1 baseline, and FY2026 EPS has ticked up modestly. Estimates are tracking guidance, not diverging, which means the gap is neither a risk nor a meaningful cushion — execution against the pre-guided targets is what matters.
KPI (Period) | Estimate (May 5, 2026 — ~5 days post Q1) | Current Consensus | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Diluted Operating EPS — Q2 2026 | $1.350 | $1.342 | −0.6% | N/A (no explicit EPS guide) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Diluted Operating EPS — FY2026 | $5.619 | $5.639 | +0.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Total Revenue — Q2 2026 | $7.528B | $7.559B | +0.4% | Implied by delivery guide | Unchanged | — | ~Inline |
Total Revenue — FY2026 | $30.326B | $30.481B | +0.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Truck Deliveries — Q2 2026 (#) | 37,665 | 37,785 | +0.3% | 37,000–38,000 | Unchanged | — | +0.5% above midpoint |
Parts Revenue — Q2 2026 | $1.774B | $1.771B | −0.2% | +3% QoQ growth | Unchanged | — | +3.6% QoQ vs. +3% guide |
Estimates have barely moved since the Q1 print — the largest revision is +0.5% on FY2026 revenue — confirming that the Street is anchored to management's pre-guided targets rather than independently modeling upside. The risk is asymmetric: a delivery or margin miss vs. the guided range would be a negative surprise, while beating the guided range (particularly on truck gross margin) would be the primary upside catalyst. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: PCAR is up ~11.6% since the Q1 2026 earnings date (April 28), outperforming IYT (+7.8%) and SPY (+3.8%). The 1-month EV/EBITDA multiple expanded ~13% while estimates barely moved, confirming the rally is multiple-driven — the market is pricing in the recovery thesis, not just the current quarter.
Since the Q1 2026 earnings date (April 28, 2026), PCAR has risen from $119.61 to $133.44 (+11.6%), outperforming the iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT: +7.8%, from $80.89 to $87.18) and the S&P 500 (SPY: +3.8%, from $711.69 to $739.09). The outperformance is concentrated in the most recent 30 days, with PCAR gaining ~9.7% in the past month vs. IYT flat and SPY +3.5%. The 12-month stock performance decomposition shows that the 31.6% gain over the past year was split between ~17.9% from P/E multiple expansion and the remainder from earnings growth, confirming that sentiment and re-rating have been the primary drivers. At the current NTM P/E of ~21.3x and EV/EBITDA of ~14.5x, PCAR is trading above its historical trough multiples, implying the market has already priced in a meaningful recovery. The stock needs to see continued margin expansion and H2 delivery ramp confirmation to justify further multiple expansion from here. Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance); Stock Performance Decomposition.
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PCAR vs. IYT vs. SPY — Indexed to 100 at April 28, 2026 (Q1 2026 Earnings Date). Note: Chart generated from Yahoo Finance close price data. IYT = iShares Transportation Average ETF (best-fit sector proxy for PCAR’s heavy-duty truck sub-sector).
Date | PCAR (Indexed) | IYT (Indexed) | SPY (Indexed) |
Apr 28, 2026 (Earnings Date) | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
May 8, 2026 | 95.6 | 99.9 | 103.6 |
May 22, 2026 | 91.4 | 100.7 | 104.8 |
Jun 5, 2026 | 97.6 | 104.6 | 103.6 |
Jun 16, 2026 | 101.2 | 106.4 | 105.4 |
Jun 30, 2026 | 100.4 | 107.2 | 104.9 |
Jul 10, 2026 | 104.1 | 108.9 | 106.1 |
Jul 22, 2026 | 109.6 | 108.7 | 105.0 |
Jul 28, 2026 (Latest) | 111.6 | 107.8 | 103.8 |
Note: Indexed to 100 at April 28, 2026 close. IYT = iShares Transportation Average ETF (sector proxy). Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance). PCAR's underperformance vs. IYT in May reflected the broader transportation sector rally while PCAR digested the Q1 print; the sharp catch-up in late July reflects the Daimler Truck guidance raise and Traton/Volvo read-throughs confirming the NA truck cycle recovery.
Key Takeaway: Three direct peers — Traton, Daimler Truck, and Volvo Group — all reported Q2 2026 results in the last 60 days and collectively confirm a strong North American heavy-duty truck demand recovery, driven by improving fleet economics, strong freight rates, and EPA 2027 pre-buy activity. The read-through is broadly positive for PCAR's Q2 print, though Traton's caution on underlying US transport volumes and the delivery lag vs. orders are important caveats.
Read-Through Type: Direct — International Motors competes head-to-head with Kenworth and Peterbilt in the North American Class 8 market.
Caveat: Traton CEO Christian Levin expressed concern that "the underlying economy in the US is slightly worrying" — noting that transport volumes are not growing in line with GDP, and the recovery is primarily "replacement" demand driven by fleet aging and smaller carriers exiting the market rather than genuine freight volume growth. Larger fleets are more active than retail customers, suggesting a bifurcated market. This is a structural caution, not a near-term demand warning, but it tempers the multi-year upcycle narrative.
Read-Through Type: Direct — Daimler Truck's Trucks North America segment (Freightliner, Western Star) is PACCAR's primary North American competitor.
Caveat: Daimler Truck's Q2 group-level adjusted EBIT of €838M missed consensus of €878M, and Industrial Business revenue of €11.4B was below the €11.5B consensus. The guidance raise is based on the assumption that the current USMCA framework remains in place — any tariff policy change would invalidate the raised outlook. Results are preliminary and unaudited.
Read-Through Type: Indirect — Volvo Group competes in North America (Volvo Trucks, Mack Trucks) but reports global aggregates without a dedicated NA segment breakdown comparable to PACCAR's.
Caveat: Volvo's report provides global aggregates without a dedicated North American segment P&L, making direct margin comparisons to PACCAR difficult. The 6% organic vehicle sales growth is a global figure; North American first-half retail sales fell 18% year-over-year even as orders surged, confirming the order-to-delivery lag dynamic also seen at Traton. No specific commentary on EPA 2027 pre-buy or tariff credits was provided.
Read-Through Type: Indirect — JBHT is a major trucking and intermodal carrier, not a truck manufacturer. Its results reflect end-market freight demand conditions that drive PACCAR's customer base.
Caveat: JBHT's sharp capex reduction is a company-specific signal and should not be extrapolated to the broader fleet market. The intermodal shift (away from trucking) is a structural trend that could modestly dampen Class 8 demand at the margin. JBHT's results are a demand-side read-through, not a supply-side (manufacturer) signal.
Peer | Report Date | Read-Through Type | Key Signal for PCAR | Direction |
Traton SE (International) | Jul 23, 2026 | Direct (NA Class 8 competitor) | NA orders tripled; EPA 2027 pre-buy confirmed; pricing optionality emerging in H2; delivery lag vs. orders (temporary) | Positive |
Daimler Truck (Freightliner) | Jul 22, 2026 | Direct (NA Class 8 competitor) | NA guidance raised; Q2 NA ROS beat consensus; tariff credit mechanism clarified; Q2 NA deliveries +42% QoQ | Positive |
Volvo Group (Volvo/Mack) | Jul 17, 2026 | Indirect (global aggregates) | Record margins; high fleet utilization; NA orders +122%; maintained 265k NA outlook; H2 delivery ramp expected | Positive |
J.B. Hunt (JBHT) | Jul 15, 2026 | Indirect (carrier/end-market) | Freight volumes strong; constrained capacity; but JBHT capex −64% YoY (company-specific headwind) | Mixed |
Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the Daimler Truck guidance raise on July 22, which directly validates PACCAR's constructive H2 2026 outlook and confirms the Section 232 tariff credit mechanism is real and quantifiable — a potential incremental margin catalyst for PCAR's Q2 print.
Key Takeaway: No open-market insider purchases or sales were identified for PCAR in the period since the Q1 2026 earnings date (April 28, 2026). The SEC Form 4 filings retrieved for PCAR in this period relate to equity award grants and tax-withholding transactions (non-discretionary), not open-market buys or sells. The absence of discretionary insider selling ahead of earnings is a mild positive signal — insiders are not reducing exposure into the print.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Value | Date | Note |
No open-market transactions identified | — | — | — | — | SEC Form 4 filings since Apr 28, 2026 reflect equity award grants and tax-withholding dispositions only (non-discretionary). No open-market buys (code P) or discretionary sells (code S) identified. |
Source: SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings for PACCAR Inc. (CIK 75362), April 28 – July 27, 2026. Multiple Form 4 filings were identified in this period; all relate to equity compensation plan transactions (grants, vesting, and associated tax-withholding dispositions) rather than discretionary open-market activity. No Form 144 (intended sale) filings were identified for PCAR insiders in this window.